On 14 Sep 2018 at 9:26am Fairmeadow wrote:
The Governor of the Bank of England has announced that house prices "could" fall by 35% after Brexit, trapping millions of house owners in negative equity.
Any potential first time buyers must consider his warning, as they will be the worst affected. Anyone thinking of moving up the housing ladder, with the aid of a bigger mortgage, would be trapped too. If you just wait another year until prices have crashed, you will have saved yourself from a nightmare. The Governor's clear message: put any such plans on ice.
Bit of a problem for the house building industry too. A disaster if you build houses with borrowed money and then find no one is interested in buying them when they are built, but that is what happens in financial crashes, such as the Governor is warning about. If you are about to start building the North Street Quarter or next to Tesco (due to start this month), better think again. A pity, just when the government has dragooned the builders into building more new houses than for a decade.
No problem for we wrinklies who own our own houses outright. Their value going up and down is only of interest to our heirs, or to the County Council when they take them to cover our care home fees.
The Governor is of course the commander in chief of Project Fear, now that George Osborne has departed the scene. He must surely realise that, although his "could" could equally well be "could not", his issuing this warning is, given his authority, very likely to affect confidence in a way that makes his prophecy self-fulfilling.
This is the official our Chancellor has just persuaded to continue in office for longer than planned.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 10:11am Happiness wrote:
This must surely be good news for the younger generation and generation X.
For far too long, baby boomers and their children have experienced a disproportionate benefit of runaway house prices... Mortgage equity withdrawals fuelling a credit binge all thanks to Gordon Brown.
Bring on the falls. I don't feel comfortable that my house is "worth" so much on paper.
Fractional reserve banking at it's worst.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 10:51am yippee wrote:
House prices are over valued and a fall would be great news. Homes are meant to be lived in not as a way to make money.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 11:21am Speculator wrote:
If he's right, then the best bet would be to sell your house now if you own one, rent for a year or so then buy a much bigger house once the prices have collapsed.
Anyone recommend a good estate agent?
On 14 Sep 2018 at 11:29am wallace wrote:
I fear we are being cynically manipulated by all sides. How dare they use fear to complete their endgame. this is dangerous stuff indeed.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 12:18pm Newms wrote:
This is also the |Chancellor that when, post referendum every indicator was pointing at recession re started QE and cancelled the much flagged 2% interest rate rise. This triggered the consumer boom that has floated us through while investment has been falling fast as have car sales (a bell weather usually )
At a time when the UK has ( thanks to Brexit) expanded its borrowing to a historic high 80-90% of GDP and has not yet stated to cut back the UK needs credibility , who do you suggest we put in charge , Patrick Minford . They combed the world for one economist to support Brexit and he is all they could come up with was that absurd crank
If we fall out of the EU with nothing not only will we lose our market access to our major market but a further 12% of our trade is governed by preferential deals Up to 90% relies n the 370 treaties that augment basic WTO by which?( for example) quotas relating to the over 2000 types of steel pass around the world . It isn`t just a matter of what we do you will not be able to embark good from Rotterdam to the UK.
You may have noticed, the Brexit alternative has mysteriously disappeared this week , why do you think that is …. Because they cannot come up with anything that makes any sense!
You will also have noticed that Dominic Rabb is unable to give a figure on the amount we will owe the EU if we leave with no deal . Do you know why ..it is because we will owe all of it about £40billion and we will just have to pay anyway
This was this easiest negotiation ever wasn’t it ?
I don`t want to be unkind to you Fairmeadow but if you seriously think you are up to this ..then carry on , otherwise make a cup of tea and have a sit down
On 14 Sep 2018 at 12:21pm Fairmeadow wrote:
Unfortunately Happiness & Yippee, you don't understand how it works.
Firstly, it isn't going to be Baby Boomers who suffer if house prices fall. For them house prices are just numbers. They have mortgage-free homes to live in.
The people hurt most immediately are young people who have recently got on to, or climbed up, the housing ladder. Their equity is wiped out, or if in negative equity they are stuck and can't move. As mortgage rates skyrocket, they can't pay the mortgage either. Nightmare - but older people remember it happening.
Thirdly, if house prices fall, that still doesn't help those who want to buy a house but can't afford it. Prices may be lower, but mortgage rates higher, so such buyers are still priced out. And if banks fear prices may continue to fall, they will demand large deposits, so the buyer takes the risk, not them. The Bank of Mum & Dad won't be able to help by remortgaging their own houses. That's assuming the banks don't stop lending altogether, which they did last time.
So who would benefit from a collapse in house prices? That is easy. The wealthy cash buyers, who can snap up even more houses as they get cheaper. They will be motivated to do so if they feared their cash holdings would be lost to inflation.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 12:50pm Ghost of Maggie wrote:
Just rejoice and be thankful that I let you buy your L.A. houses for sweet Fanny Adams. L O L
On 14 Sep 2018 at 1:18pm Happiness wrote:
I'm not sure I agree with that Fairmeadow. That may be true for some first time buyers that have no savings.
You have to remember that there is an upcoming generation who have been saving for years to get a deposit together to buy their first home. Price falls will only help these buyers even if mortgage rates go up.
Just to illustrate my point, there is a new development on the A26 heading out of Lewes with 3 bedroom prices starring at £535k. 2 of these have been labelled "affordable homes" , available with a 75% share option. Effectively 400k with a 10% deposit required.
This is clearly bonkers and not sustainable.
We area due a correction (call it a crash of you like), but as a parent wanting to help top up our son's deposit a reduced purchase price can only be a good thing.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 1:22pm Newms wrote:
Fairmeadow
No-one will benefit from house price falls because it does not reflect the cost of a house ( which has not changed ) it reflects a loss of confidence in the UK and a drop off in demand.
House prices will fall because people cannot afford them not because they can .
If we are in that sort of territory then much more follows above all the dreaded bond strike which would strike at every household in the country
This will be your fault
On 14 Sep 2018 at 1:25pm Project Fearless. wrote:
If house prices fall then this will decimate the amount of money that is invested in property in both the private and the public spheres signalling big trouble for pensions .As the property market loses in value and the spectre of increased negative equity looms again, lenders will likely become more and more risk averse and mortgage deposits will become greater and greater expect deposits to demanded to be 40% of the sum borrowed.As the pound weakens interest rates increase and the economy slows even more, expect unemployment to rise and real wages to decrease even further as inflation ramps up , then home ownership will become even rarer. Any fall in house prices is unlikely to benefit anyone except the already property and cash rich,certainly not first time buyers or the young.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 1:31pm Newms wrote:
Oh well at least we will keep our £40bilion eh …errrm no actually .That money is owed with or without a deal . Our 1972 accession agreement at article 130 says ...
The Communities’ own resources and also the financial contributions and, where appropriate, the contributions referred to in Article 4(2), ( 3 ) and (4) of the Decision of 21 April 1970 shall be due from the new Member States to the following extent only :
45.0% in 1973
56.0% in 1974
67.5% in 1975
79.5% in 1976
92.0% in 1977.
That was our financial on-ramp.
An off-ramp with the same percentages reducing year on year and applied to todays contributions, then we get a 6 year disconnection that works out to about £44.5bn
This is money to which we have agreed and , as you may have noticed , there has never been any suggestion that we will not pay from day 1 . That’s deal or no deal
Good old Brexit
On 14 Sep 2018 at 2:25pm @Happiness wrote:
Why not buy yourself a church happiness, you could call it “Bell end”.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 3:54pm The Curate of Bell End wrote:
Happiness, you could go into the bell tower and toll yourself off.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 4:14pm Happiness wrote:
He, he - you builder girlies knock of early today did you?
I hope you sell those units quickly. They look shocking from the road.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 4:16pm Mark wrote:
Paul flipping Newman! Well I'll be blowed. Welcome back, Sword of Truth. What on earth happened? I had just assumed that you had been detained under a section. Long-winded, arrogant, appalling punctuation - it's like old times. I'll bring you up to speed. General consensus is that Corbyn is under attack by an alliance of Zionists, the MSM, blairites and the right. You should enjoy that. The Brexiteers appear to be getting fewer by the week but are clearly getting dafter. See above. Clifford has mentioned his two arguments against Brexit (Goldman Sachs and the fact that it was necessary to renegotiate the Lisbon Treaty) I wouldn't even care to guess how many times. Those are the key points, I suppose.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 4:34pm @@Happiness wrote:
No, these will be buy to let champagne socialists will an agenda. Probably momentum supporters (the forum is infested with these cowards) and they troll by insulting people and calling them names.
Have a beer and forget it. They've got teeny weenies.
On 14 Sep 2018 at 5:43pm Pass the cyanide wrote:
On 14 Sep 2018 at 10:36pm Dexter wrote:
Hey Paul. Welcome back.
I have a couple of questions.
Considering your former support for UKIP and their ultra-right wing lunacy a couple of years ago (see link below); what caused your epiphany to EU supporting right wing liberal?
Further to that, as you previously held such anti-EU views yourself; can you explain your current stance and complete lack of empathy for those who still hold similar views to those views that you once did?
If you've forgotten, please click the link.
Check it out here »
On 14 Sep 2018 at 11:26pm Mark wrote:
He has always a bit of a weird character Dexter. I'm thrilled that he's back.
On 15 Sep 2018 at 12:50am Ball ox wrote:
And if, in the highly unlikely event that prices do fall by that amount (no government reliant on middle class homeowner votes will allow it).....The properties will be snapped up by cash rich buyers who have already made huge profits and overseas buyers who are not affected by UK /EU politics, i.e Russians, South Americans, South Africans and Middle Easterns. It is well known that one middle eastern sovereign fund has made moves on a well established central Lewes development. Soon there will be some very wealthy cash buyers snapping up discounted properties in Southover. It's those who are 90% mortgaged in Landport that will suffer.....
On 16 Sep 2018 at 9:35pm Falling knife wrote:
Even if they weren’t going to crash, they may do now due to the herd sentiment of everyone selling up at once. Nobody wants to catch a falling knife so a race to the bottom could start.
On 16 Sep 2018 at 9:52pm History repeatin wrote:
A friend had a flat ‘worth’ £80k back in the early 90s, it then dropped in ‘value’ right down to £25k by 1994 which was when I bought it off him. Which was nice.