On 23 Jan 2017 at 3:14pm Eyes wide open. wrote:
Brexit to cost Britain more than 5% of GDP by 2030 say City economists
This is an estimate of the loss of GDP relative to where the economy would have been without Brexit and adds up to more than £100bn in today's money
Check it out here »
On 23 Jan 2017 at 4:40pm Headin Rse wrote:
I don't care I'll be gone by then.
On 23 Jan 2017 at 4:44pm hmm wrote:
If we stayed in our net contributions to the EU from now until 2030 would be 110.5 Billion (13 x 8.5bn) and that's if they didn't increase.
That's a slightly bigger packet isn't it? Also I'm inclined to be somewhat sceptical of predictions by 'city economists' after their failure to predict the 2008/9 crash and their repeated failure to predict anything.
On 23 Jan 2017 at 7:26pm Newms wrote:
Economists have had a problem seeing calamity coming but they have been pretty good at seeing existing trends . A 5% loss of growth is about £100bn of which, lets say a third to a half is tax every year. Our EU contributions are £11bn net ( and at a historic high )
That is just the start .The 5% loss of growth compounds each year and,as is the way , you would be surprised how soon it dwarfs EU contributions . In any case it will cost jobs and so we would need more not less tax revenue
Anyway , you never know , they might actually stop EU migration. That would cost more net tot exchequer and cost yet more growth ,see above
You will see when the money has run out when they start asking Councils to do things that are actually impossible to do with the money they have …that’s now . In any case the weak pound is already feeing inflation info the system and the costs are getting going right now
A highly interesting meeting at St Thomas`s on Saturday night . I feel that Lewes can really inspire the country with a working Remain alliance putting differences aside for the greater good and registering a protest by voting Maria Caulfield out. Compromises will have to be made by all but by focusing on areas of agreement we can really achieve something right here
On 23 Jan 2017 at 8:07pm hmm wrote:
A report compiled by PwC on behalf of the CBI showed that exiting the EU with an FTA would only lead to a 1.2 per cent reduction in GDP by 2030. A report by Open Europe finds within a realistic range, exiting the EU with a strong trade deal with the EU could lead to a 0.6 percent increase in GDP by 2030.
Going by this impartial research from two different reports we would save over £100 billion in fees with no real effect on GDP - the most likely outcome.
On 23 Jan 2017 at 8:25pm the peopel wrote:
In view of the Trump approach to trade, we are better out of the EU. The USA approach will need to be adopted by UK for Trade if we are to benefit.
On 23 Jan 2017 at 8:29pm Clifford wrote:
Newms wrote: 'Compromises will have to be made by all...'
The best compromise would be for Remainers to recognise that we had a free vote in the referendum in June and that the result was in favour of leaving the EU. Painful, I know, for the supporters of the Goldman Sachs-sponsored project, but that's how democracy works.
On 23 Jan 2017 at 9:06pm Newms wrote:
Civitas , are Brexit campaigners and I know for a fact that PWC have made dire predictions in every sector (100,000 Finical Services Job Loses for example ) so your source is likely to strike people as unconvincing. We don`t know the context.
The Treasury’s analysis suggests that Brexit would lead to a long-run fall in UK GDP of 3.8% under the Norway option, 6.2% under the Canada option and 7.5% under the WTO option. See my points on the real meaning of that .
That is serious analysis/ a stab in the dark , take your pick but scary stuff still .The fact is that almost without exception people who are actually exporting , which is about 28% of our economy( and all the big companies) hate detest and loathe Brexit
I think you have to use to some common sense . If you erect trade barriers with your largest market you will be hindered and the point is that your competitors will not . They will win
Do you have any idea how complex a modern supply chain is , for example , a “British “ Car will have components crossing multiple EU borders , eventually they are only assembled here.
At each cross point , post Brexit each component must be checked and verified as to country of origin( otherwise tariff deals would be evaded routinely by using staging posts). It is reckoned that this would add 15% to costs. Add that to actually tariffs and you cannot begin to compete .
Not my point especially but a point made by an enraged Sir Andrew Cookson ( ex-Conservative donor ) whose many employees on component manufacture dace a dire future . Nissan Are already back peddling but such investment decisions are only made at the expiry of the Plant .
Each and every largescale investment in this country faces a fight to survive in the worst place in Europe from which to export to Europe . Remember in the WTO you cannot help your own “people” that is subsidy and it is forbidden
Anyone who thinks Trump will help us has to be mad. Why do you think he wants the EU broken up ..uits so he can bully each country on its own with his vast readymade Free Trade area . Being able to deal with America as an equal was part of the point of the EU and we need that strength more than ever now
Clifford did you not notice the threats to reduce corporate taxation in Ms May`s speech . That’s £120bn out of the public purse. Can you not try to help ?
Let us hope that others in Lewes will want to get involved and do what we can to give the “Non people” a voice .
On 23 Jan 2017 at 10:20pm SHS wrote:
@Newms absolute rubbish. Pull your finger out stop moaning and scaremongering and do something useful! A Remain group? You can't be serious.
On 23 Jan 2017 at 10:28pm The people wrote:
Newms- you have it so wrong. I went through many issues with you on another thread. No why don't you just go and live in mainland Europe if it's so great, or tell us all why you want to stay in the U.K.
On 23 Jan 2017 at 10:39pm Bob Fleming wrote:
@The People - No! Don't ask him anything. You'll only get paragraphs of verbal diarrhoea. He has out stayed his welcome.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 12:02am Eyes wide open wrote:
Surely even the most simple-minded brexiter can grasp that when trading with your nearest neighbours becomes more costly thanks to potential tariffs and non-tariffs barriers being introduced post-brexit, coupled with a far less attractive country for FDI, lower productivity thanks to less FDI and restrictions on EU immigration, plus the associated deterioration in the public finances...so less government investment and money for schools and NHS, then of course the UK is going to be much worse off than otherwise. It's only a question of how much worse off.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 6:19am Newms wrote:
The people - You told one just so story backed with the astonishing news that the British Banking Association did not predict the end of British Banking. Woo hoooo !
You can make some sort of case for the moon being made of cheese but the UK is the worst place from which to export Europe in Europe and faces the rest of the word weak , small and so desperate it has convinced itself that the most protectionist President ever , backing off NATO is a good thing .
Its pathetic and I suggest you go back to stirring up ethnic resentment which is the only reason we have to have this stupid conversation in the first place
On 24 Jan 2017 at 7:10am Chester Packov-Lyze wrote:
@SHS What an articulate reasoned response to Paul's comments - "Pull your finger out stop moaning". Maybe that's why Brexiteers are not trusted - sloganeering instead of proper discussion.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 8:38am Clifford wrote:
Eyes wide open wrote: 'Surely even the most simple-minded brexiter can grasp that when trading with your nearest neighbours becomes more costly...'
Eyes, you know the UK has a permanent balance of ayments deficit with the other EU states, don't you? What do you make of that?
On 24 Jan 2017 at 11:53am bored wrote:
Funny isn't it all they can talk about is economics and even then their arguments don't stand up to scrutiny.
Here's a clue for the idiot remainers - its not an economic but a political project. Again in case you didn't get it - It is a political construct.
There will be no real effect on GDP. A mutually beneficially trade deal will be struck that works in the interests of everyone. As Clifford correctly points out the EU has more to lose than the UK.
Eyes wide open gave us his absolute worst case biased scenario and we would still end up £15 BN richer - what a simpleton.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 12:07pm John wrote:
I am not sure that the EU has more to lose than the UK. German business leaders recently made it clear that they thought keeping the EU together would benefit them more in the long term than tariff free trade with the UK. They are backing Angela Merkel's hard line.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 12:12pm Kelly-Marie Blundell wrote:
Newms is correct- although it has already started costing our country a packet, and more is to come.
With Theresa May-be dithering over the Supreme Court battle rather than acceding that a Government who overrules a parliament is a democracy, we have lost several million.
Our currency is worth less than the Euro.
And at the same time, East Sussex County Council propose a 5% rise in council tax, with stagnant wages.
We have limited trade deals, leaving the customs union will see export and import tariffs hit our industries while others will simply move out.
That's not taking back control. That's losing the plot.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 12:53pm sprucer wrote:
Nemms's position is already being proved right. The EU won't give us a better deal than membership confers, so our trading position will de facto be worse. Two major banks are saying they will move 1000 staff, and car manufacturers are looking at their options. Our economy is precarious, and all because people were given a prospectus full of lies about the benefits of leaving, which have already fallen apart. Don't forget the referendum vote was in part an anti-Tory vote.
I Like what Tim Farron is saying. People should be able to decide whether the outcome of negotiations is good for the country, not stick with a decision taken blind. You wouldn't make such an ill-informed decision yourself, so why should we do this collectively? I will be happy to accept a second referendum vote for Brexit if the people vote with full knowledge of what has been agreed, not on the spurious prospectus we were offered last May.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 1:05pm Dave Johnson wrote:
K-M B... I'm afraid anything you have written can hardly be believed now you state the pound is worth less than the euro. All your other facts quoted aren't as easy to deny as that one. Simply put a pound is worth more than a euro, fact.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 2:22pm robp wrote:
But it won't be long, given the steady fall in the exchange rate over the last few months.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 2:36pm eeek wrote:
The pound is plummeting again today as the penny drops on the single market and it has slipped below the Euro on the High street several times. Not the same thing I know, but still....gulp...
On 24 Jan 2017 at 2:42pm Baldric wrote:
As long as I have some mud to make my porridge from I`m happy.I`v e got my country back! Yippee!
On 24 Jan 2017 at 3:14pm Knitters wrote:
Glad your maths is still good, Dave.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 5:09pm Clifford wrote:
Good to see you've reappeared Kelly-Marie. Are you going to apologise for the Lib Dem lie that people weren't aware they were voting to leave the Single Market? I know it's Farron's 'line to take'. but you know and we know it isn't true. See the link. Beginning your career in Lewes with a persistent lie isn't the way to go.
Watch the video »
On 24 Jan 2017 at 6:10pm Newms wrote:
Clifford , Daniel Hannan is still saying we don`t have to leave the single market( his book just out ) , Boris Johnson also kept to this line and the whole Leave campaign was opaque until the last couple of weeks .
It was at this stage that the entire Brexit campaign focussed on attacking immigrants to the exclusion of everything else . To do so they had to come off the fence because otherwise they couldn`t claim they would have any power to do anything about it
What they realised was that the number of people who
A knew what the single market was
B Had not made up their mind
Was almost zero.
Up to that stage what they had claimed was that there would be Brexit bonus and that trade would continue. That is entirely impossible outside the single market so it was a lie in effect ; and a lie people believed . Others writing in the Telegraph for example supported Brexit on the a basis of a gradual withdrawal staying in the single market for many years.
So there were many messages but Brexit consistently denied there would be the slightest disturbance to trade or the economy .
Not true there is no mandate for hard Brexit which would not have won a majority .
Say hallo tyo your BNP mates for me won`t you
On 24 Jan 2017 at 9:14pm Fairmeadow wrote:
Starting fact: we import a load more from the EU than we export to them. In cars, for example, the imbalance is 4:1.
So, if we move to WTO rules and tariffs are introduced on trade in both directions, we can use our tariff income to subsidise the tariffs on our exports and STILL be quids in. I bet that was the deal that persuaded Nissan to invest.
In reality we will probably import less and export less after Brexit and tariffs. Still a net gain, with big opportunities for UK producers, from car manufacturers to dairy farmers.
In reality no new issue. Currency variations are a far bigger issue than tariffs, and UK business already copes with that concern. The biggest risk? That the UK will do so well that the £ will rise too much against the €. Who still thinks, along with the remoaners, that we will be in desperate trouble if we don't join the Euro? Thank you Gordon and Ed for saving us from that dreadful trap that Blair, Major and Clegg would all have been very happy for us to have fallen in to.
On 24 Jan 2017 at 10:07pm Newms wrote:
Fairmeadow, you are looking at this in a simple mercantile way that is just not correct.
The balance of payments balances …Look if if BMW ( boo hiss ) sells a £50,000 car to an MP , shall we say, then BMW uses that £50,000 to buy shares or whatever from some other British chap or institution . The chap who sold the shares or bonds or whatever, spends the £50,000 on …ooo …a shiny new start up IT Company in London
Now the trade deficit , you will notice has risen by £50,000 but the net affect on the economy is zero and that … old chums is because the Balance of payments always balances.
It must do and if you won`t take it form me ask any economist Brexit or Remain. . The whole trade thing has the same emotional appeall as the " Come over ere taking our jobs ... thing"
It doesn`t work that way they"Come over ere grow the economy and create jobs ...the rotten swine ... not to say growth and money for the exchequer ...."
I`m not saying immigration is an unalloyed good btu EU Freedom of movement is pretty close ijn an economic sense .
Your balance of trade thing is strikes the same " taking our stuff " nerve , it has no basis in reality and the UK is indeed a massive beneficiary if inward investment we are now likely to lose
You know Fairmeadow you have always seemed like decent fellow , I`m really suprised to sdee you on the " wrong "side here ...anyhoo there it is
On 24 Jan 2017 at 10:56pm Clifford wrote:
Newms, can you tell us what exactly it is about the EU Goldman Sachs controlled neo-liberal project you like so much?
On 24 Jan 2017 at 11:09pm Alt Righter wrote:
Clifford is a proper White Patriot unlike you leftard traitor newms.