On 16 Apr 2015 at 12:03am Polling News wrote:
A poll of the South West has come out which may have implications for Norman Baker. These seats have demographics with similarities to our own and may be a guide to what is going on.
The last specific Lewes polling showed a comfortable Norm win. Since then Labour's "Old Labour" strategy has picked up disenchanted Liberals and consolidated the core vote. On the right the expected swing from UKIP to Conservative has happened ( UKIP down from 15% to 7% and falling ). All of this may easily be replicated in this seat.
South Western heartlands.
“According to a new poll from ComRes/ITV News ..there is currently a 13-point swing to the Tories. If this was repeated on May 7, the Lib Dems would lose the following seats to their coalition partners: Bath, Cheltenham, Chippenham, Cornwall North, Devon North, Dorset Mid & Poole North, Somerton & Frome, St Austell & Newquay, St Ives, Taunton Deane, Thornbury & Yate, Torbay, Wells, Yeovil.”
Wipe out !
One particularly worrying point for Baker is this :
‘Traditionally, it was thought that Lib Dem MPs benefited from a strong incumbency factor but 72 per cent of voters in this poll say they will be voting for the party they like best, not just the individual candidates. ‘
I have always thought that Baker was a cert to be returned but this is a new current. He could be in trouble....
On 16 Apr 2015 at 1:19am Super Troll wrote:
I hate to say this Newmown, but on this you may well be right.Baker and his Libil Dem Dumbs suck big time so I wont be shedding any tears.
On 16 Apr 2015 at 1:21am Ex Lib Dem Voter wrote:
This is what happens when you say one thing , and do another. I look forward to finding out what people really do support, when there is less tactical voting, since no-one can possibly know quite how many people have been doing it, or how many non Lib Dem voters have moved into the constituency.
On 16 Apr 2015 at 6:48am Phfellow2004 wrote:
The rural constituencies of the West Country are clearly sending a message to Lib Dems which makes it rather surprising that Mr Baker seems to be devoting so much of his time to the rural areas of the Lewes Constituency and ignoring Seaford, Newhaven and Lewes itself. Perhaps it was the pasting he was given at the Lewes Hustings that has scared him off!
On 16 Apr 2015 at 7:04am Paul Newman wrote:
Polly Toynbede has spotted the danger - Lewes is in her collumn today
"f Greens think this is a bitter pill, Labour voters need to swallow far nastier medicine. They must lend their votes to Lib Dems in seats that would otherwise certainly go Tory.
For instance, Lewes is a yellow dot in an East Sussex sea of Tory blue. Labour has no hope of winning here (apologies to a good Labour candidate), and Lewes Labour people are used to lending votes to the Lib Dem MP, Norman Baker. But when he defended the bedroom tax at a hustings last week, some Labour voters came away adamant that they can’t do it again.
If they don’t want a local Tory win, taking Cameron one seat close"
It all depends on whether the Labour and Green vote goes back to Baker
On 16 Apr 2015 at 7:21am The Old Mayor wrote:
In this case in make an exception !
On 16 Apr 2015 at 9:15am Mark wrote:
This seems illogical to me. The Liberals were seen as the sensible middle ground party at the last election. They went into coalition hoping for PR. PR didn't happen and instead they wound up propping up the Conservatives and aiding and abetting things like The Bedroom Tax and other bits of the Tory agenda. It's very clear that lots of folk in Lewes are cross with Norman over that. Why west-country Liberals turning Tory??
On 16 Apr 2015 at 9:38am Pn wrote:
The fact there is a swing to Conservative does not mean the same voters have moved form Liberal to Conservative . I guess its mostly votes lost to Labour by Liberals and votes gained from UKIP by Conservatives
On 16 Apr 2015 at 10:38am Mark wrote:
Sounds plausible and Norman was looking a bit stressed just now in Waitrose. Hope the free Cappuccino cheered him up.
On 16 Apr 2015 at 10:50am Belladonna wrote:
For many lefties I know the idea of tactical voting in Lewes is busted. They will be voting Labour or Green. Clegg has very clearly indicated the Lib Dems would go into coalition with the Tories again.
I think Bsker will hold on with a massively reduced majority. I don't see the Conservatives taking Lewes - Maria Caulfield has so far not impressed and has not been a visible presence in the town or core areas of the constituency.
Funny how PR has completely gone from the political agenda - I suspect it may become more popular amongst all parties if the first past the post system keeps producing hung parliaments.
On 16 Apr 2015 at 11:39am david wrote:
I'm a leftie and I certainly won't be voting Green. Its local candidates seem to pay no attention to official Green policy. and Alfie Stirling, the prospective MP does nothing to stop them. Madness.
On 16 Apr 2015 at 1:49pm Town Flyer wrote:
Looks as though Richard Black is standing for Labour in Lewes. This is very good news as far as I am concerned, he would do a much MUCH better job for Lewes than Norman Baker ever has.
On 17 Apr 2015 at 2:19am Local wrote:
Are you a complete idiot? It's pretty clear that Mr Double-Barrelled is the Leftie candidate.
On 17 Apr 2015 at 9:51am Town Flyer wrote:
Thought I read yesterday on lewes.gov that he was standing for District.
Now I can't see it, but thanks 'Local', I guess that does make me a complete idiot. Silly me.
But I do know that Russell-Moyle is standing in the Parliamentaries, not the person you seem to have alluded to.
On 17 Apr 2015 at 11:28am TRIPLE HOP wrote:
A recent poll carried out for the Lewes constituency (google Lord Ashcroft polls for details) clearly shows Norman Baker can win, but the Tories not far behind - with other parties nowhere close. So Polly Toynbee is right on this one - to be sure of not having a Tory MP representing the town you need to vote for Norman Baker and the Lib Dems
Check it out here »
On 18 Apr 2015 at 11:12pm Local wrote:
Nope, he's the chap. I can never remember which way round his three names go.