Lewes Forum thread

Go on, tell 'em what you think

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On Sun 17 Jan at 2:21pm IDM wrote:
Hope you all find me.
On Sun 17 Jan at 2:51pm IDM wrote:
BSP 3 Jan 16-56 and 17-47: Oh my God TP, that is not how to use statistics! You have sailed into new waters without a chart.
Percentages work on proportion, division, multiplication. Suppose you have 100 socks in a drawer (no, this not about making a pair!). One week you lose one (which might be accounted misfortune) and the following week another two (which might be termed carelessness). One to two is a 100% increase in the sock loss rate. In the same way, the reduction claimed by Pfizer is correct - about a 95% change in the infection rate.
Of course, you might feel that a sock loss rate of 1% or 2% is not worth worrying about; and you might feel that changes in very low infection rates are not worth worrying about either. So change everything to linear, addition, subtraction. You present your change in sock loss rate to "one percentage POINT". You can also present the change in infection rate in the same way, leading to the small difference you highlight. But this is a percentage POINT difference, not a percentage. If you don't believe me, look at a basic arithmetic (not statistics) book, or take a lead from the slideshows on the media or from No 10.
On Sun 17 Jan at 9:47pm Tom Pain wrote:
Do you mean TP as in your anally retentive dreamer persona?
On Wed 27 Jan at 3:49pm IDM wrote:
Nice one TP, although I admit it took me a few hours to get it.
On Fri 29 Jan at 12:24pm Dr. Livingstone wrote:
Is this a thread about .....a thread ? b s p - british standard pipe ?
On Sat 30 Jan at 9:21pm IDM wrote:
Yes, it is a thread which continues bsp (started 3 Jan), so it will obviously refer to its forebear. It would not surprise me if other threads about similar subjects move to here when they are full.
On Wed 21 Apr at 11:06pm IDM wrote:
More Censorship TP 6 Apr 23-28
Yes, as I said some time ago, finding the correct numbers of Covid-19 deaths is fraught with difficulty. As different countries define the deaths in different ways, inter-country comparisons are meaningless. But a flawed counting system will still give that country some idea of how it is doing.
As regards the UK; the patient catches asymptomatic Covid-19 on day one. (S)he tests positive on day three. Recovers, with a negative test, on day 24. Hit by a bus on day 26. A covid death, right?
There will be many reasons why the UK deaths will be undercounted. Eg patient at home dies with no time for a test. Where we really are, God knows. But other countries are doubtless saying the same.

On Wed 21 Apr at 11:13pm IDM wrote:
More Censorship TP 6 Apr 23-28
It may have been a few months ago, but I remember someone on here claimed to have had it (described as very unpleasant, worse than flu).
On Wed 21 Apr at 11:20pm IDM wrote:
More Censorship TP 7 Apr 22-23
The CDC is entitled to its opinion, but (with arguing scientists) we do not really know yet whether someone vaccinated can transmit the disease. This is another consequence of approval being so rushed.
On Wed 21 Apr at 11:41pm IDM wrote:
More Censorship Chartist 1 Apr 17-16
Physical virus transfer may be part of an infection chain, but Covid-19 is not contagious. Unlike (for example) leprosy, it cannot be transmitted by simply touching an infected person.
On Wed 21 Apr at 11:49pm IDM wrote:
TP More Censorship TP 1 Apr 18-11
I agree. Masks and vaccination have nothing to do with each other in terms of direct interaction. All they have in common is that they (help to) prevent disease. So I'm going for both.
On Sun 30 May at 11:42pm IDM wrote:
It is interesting that Boris (having had the disease) is still wearing a mask. So, either: he believes that it is possible to be infected twice; or that one can have had the disease and yet still be infectious to others. If so, he appears to be following SAGE concerns after all.
On Sun 30 May at 11:53pm IDM wrote:
Some time ago (no, don't ask me when or which thread), I gave my own views on what I would have done differently. Well, as we are now: scrap the exercise exemption (although now probably irrelevant); with the olympics in jeopardy, scrap the elite sports exemption; extend test and trace to shops; given that compulsory vaccination is a no-no, at least make testing compulsory; have a central database of linked households (without which, enforcing gathering limits is virtually impossible); most importantly, have proper medical authorisation for mask wearing exemptions (the current system is completely uncontrolled).

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