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Statistics

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On Thu 27 Aug at 2:51pm Tom Pain wrote:
According to government statistics the overall mortality rate in the country for June is lower than usual. The demise of people from flu, pneumonia, lower respiratory complaints and dementia has dropped by 54 per 10,000. By a strange coincidence that is about the same number of deaths attributed to covid 19. It would be interesting to see what reasons forumites could come up with to account for this unusual anomaly.
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On Thu 27 Aug at 6:32pm Nevillman wrote:
Do you find it annoying when people ignore your post and write about something else Tom?
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On Thu 27 Aug at 8:43pm Tom Pain wrote:
No, not unless it's to make fatuous remarks.
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On Thu 27 Aug at 10:14pm Ferret wrote:
Dear TP, I'll ask you a question instead of give you answer. Don't you think it might be difficult for someone who died of Covid-19 to die of something else several months later?
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On Thu 27 Aug at 11:40pm Tom Pain wrote:
No, not in the current post truth climate; but I don't understand the reason for your question.
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On Fri 28 Aug at 1:54pm Ferret wrote:
I don't know how many of those very elderly and/or sick people in care homes or hospitals who died of Covid-19 in the first 5 months of the pandemic would have died anyway in July or August. Also, it is clear that the virtual imprisonment of the elderly in care homes, and their own homes, has protected them from flu and other infections, as the lockdown protected the rest of us. Do you know anyone who has had so much as a cold since March? I don't (other than my son and his family who had Covid-19).
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On Fri 28 Aug at 2:43pm David Stanley wrote:
No but I know a lot of people who have become insane.....hopefully temporarily?
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On Fri 28 Aug at 3:05pm Tom Pain wrote:
One has to be careful of the terms OF and WITH. The government statistics are of the WITH covid type and are often accompanied by co morbidities, thus someone who died of cancer who had previously tested positive for covid would be registered as a covid death. This is probably because of autopsies not being carried out due to the infection risk, but it does leave the statistics rather vague and open to sensational media headlines. I would hazard a guess that the unreliable p c r tests, which their inventor said should never be used for diagnosis, often mistake one corona virus for another. This is attested to by many medical authorities. It amazes me how people aware of the corruption of the government don't suspect them of being "influenced" by the private healthcare and pharmaceutical companies. An epidemic comparable to a fairly severe flu season has been luridly exaggerated into a financial bonanza for the aforementioned. It is also a perfectly unmissable excuse for selling off the NHS.
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On Fri 28 Aug at 4:32pm Ferret wrote:
There's not much to disagree with in your latest remarks. I'm very glad that you are trying to stick to the facts as known, The mass media and social networks are guilty of carrying the somewhat hysterical message that the virus is or was a threat to human existence, but to be fair, at the beginning it did look pretty awful, with a nearly a thousand a day dying in the UK in early April. Thankfully that awful number reduced due to the lockdown measures. It's foolish to imagine that carrying on as usual would have resulted in such a rapid turn round. The flu epidemic of 1918 was ameliorated in part by similar measures and yet killed 10s of millions, and up to a third of the world's population was infected. Just imagine the death toll if Covid-19 had been able to infect one third of the current global population instead of approximately 1.5% by my rough calculations. It may yet, but we know a lot more about it now, and epidemiology is a far more advanced science nowadays. I'm not sure how the pandemic reaction could be an excuse for selling off the NHS. It seems to me that all the failures in the UK are attributable to failings of the private sector, and a government that panders to it.
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On Fri 28 Aug at 4:55pm Mark wrote:
Is there a similar conspiracy in all other countries? Don't you think it's a bit arrogant Tom to disagree with Chris Witty, Dr Faucci and all of heads of state in the world.
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On Fri 28 Aug at 10:38pm Tom Pain wrote:
Not at all, Faucci has his fingers in so many pharmaceutical pies it's bewildering, let's say he'll make a fortune out of covid. Robert Kennedy has a lot of information on him. But it's not them, it's the media spotlight on certain things they say and a blank on other things that they can't stir up a panic about. As far as world leaders are concerned, look at the hatchet job they're doing on Lukashenko. He refused to lockdown and destroy his countries economy. The Western powers financed a colour revolution which failed. It may have escaped your notice but anyone who won't play the IMF game or stands against US hegemony is immediately a brutal dictator who kills his own people. Maybe you believe it. Take a look at New Zealand locking down with just 22 deaths giving them a 0.0004% mortality risk. If you think that's a health concern there's no point in me going on. It's all about the WEF great reset. Read about that and you'll understand what's going on, they've got a web site.
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On Fri 28 Aug at 11:40pm Ferret wrote:
This is new: going off at a tangent on your own thread. It started off about the UK death rate and now you're ranting about a poor, persecuted East european dictator who let his people die rather than destroy the economy that he has been pillaging for decades. Well done, Tom. New depths have been plumbed.
 
 
On Fri 28 Aug at 11:43pm Basil wrote:
Is this to do with complaining about the result of the 2016 EU referendum? It usually is.
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On Sat 29 Aug at 10:26am Local99 wrote:
Yawn.......
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On Sat 29 Aug at 1:49pm Dreamer wrote:
As usual, TP is spreading misleading information.
The major PCR tests being used have repeatedly been shown to be specific to SARS-CoV2. Read all about it in Corman et al. 2020 (doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000045) and Konrad et al. 2020 (doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000173)
If anything, some of the early tests were found to report false negatives (Muenchhoff et al. 2020).
So, yes. Your claim (unreferenced) may mean that one investor of one PCR test said his test shouldn't be used for diagnostics. But the evidence (see examples of relevant peer reviewed studies above, mostly free to read) is very clear that the tests actually being used are fully fit for purpose.
Provide actual references for your claims or stop spreading them. And no: blogposts from a single Swiss doctor don't count as reference.
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On Sat 29 Aug at 5:45pm Local99 wrote:
Yawn..........
 
 
On Sat 29 Aug at 9:03pm Tom Pain wrote:
Ah,ha ferret without a w. You have got a bit of a cheek taking the name of the noble predator who fearlessly roams the rabbit holes in search of his prey! Somehow I can't see you exploring even a figurative one for fear of getting dirty. And for getting sniffy about tangents. You'd benefit from a few instead of staying in your comfortable rut. Dreamer, you're s
uch a liar. Prove your statement about me moaning about dfls, or don't bother me, fair enough?
The name's Pain, the pain, without an E! ho ho.
Oh yes, that reminds me he was'nt one investor in pcrs, he was THE inventor, and got a Nobel prize for his pains. Have you the grace to admit he just might be slightly more qualified to have an opinion than you?
 
 
On Sat 29 Aug at 9:28pm Tom Pain wrote:
While I'm being a pain and determinedly tangential, there's something I recently discovered about Rule Britannia, not that it's ever turned me on. The lyrics were written after the British Navy was strengthened to an extent which prevented the Barbary Pirates from raiding our shores. These pitiless marauders from Africa captured people to sell as slaves, thousands of them.
Not only is the BBC a shameless purveyor of fear porn, it has no regard for history and has a contempt for the British people whom it belittles at every opportunity.
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On Sat 29 Aug at 10:38pm Ferret wrote:
It's the royalist dirge that masquerades as our "national anthem" that offends me more than those silly songs that the rabid right are making such a song and dance about. It is not a crime to be a republican, so you'll excuse me if I turn the sound of whenever it's played or sung.
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On Sun 30 Aug at 3:52pm Dreamer wrote:
TP, you should really read what I said. Never claimed you have moaned about DFLs, I suggested that might be something you are good at. To spare you the trouble (and give you more time to find new lies to spread) this is the actual quote:
"So please: stuck to what you are good at. Moan about DFLs, troll the forum or whatever."
I'll repeat my request that came after that: just stop spreading lies and misinformation about a gobal health crisis.
 
 
On Sun 30 Aug at 9:26pm Tom Pain wrote:
If you say I'm good at moaning about dfls, to me that says ,strange as it may seem, that I'm good at moaning about dfls. I have never done it,so how could you judge my ability so to do. Let's face it ,you wanted some cheap insult to sling at me. Still you can't admit it and insist on pushing your foot further down your throat. Your hypocrisy is astounding. Having been exposed as a liar your latest resort is to label me as such. You could go on forever convincing yourself of anything it appears but please leave me out of it.
Ferret,without a g, seeing that you disapprove of tangents, where did the awful god save the queen appear from and what has your opinion on constitutional matters got to do with anything?
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On Sun 30 Aug at 9:58pm Dreamer wrote:
Yawn. Tom: I said do what your good at. Whatever it may be. Moaning and trolling. Don't pretend it's important about what. And don't pretend I said what anyone able to read English can see I didn't.
Now go troll along. Or, as you like to call it "be a pain".
'nuff said.
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On Sun 30 Aug at 11:36pm Ferret wrote:
@TP Your tangent became my tangent. You ranted about Rule Britannia, written a hundred years after the last Barbary raid on the coast of Britannia. I said it it was less offensive to me than God Save the Queen, especially to those of a republican persuasion, such as I. After all, parliament is supreme in this country, not the descendant of Norman invaders, or German princelings, or whatever.
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On Sun 30 Aug at 11:39pm Ferret wrote:
Why am I talking about the absurdity of monarchs to a person who takes the name of the man who wrote the definitive commentary on monarchy in "Common Sense"? Have you read it?
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On Sun 30 Aug at 11:42pm Ferret wrote:
Not to mention his other great work on constitutional matters.
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On Mon 31 Aug at 9:47am Mark wrote:
"Common Sense". I'll never forget the night I read the last page. He was re-engineering the way the entire world operated. All Lewesians need to have a spring in their step knowing that he walked these streets.
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On Mon 31 Aug at 1:53pm Tom Pain wrote:
Latest statistics from NHS August 26 covid deaths~ 29,531 total
Deaths with no co morbidity~1,390
Deaths with pre existing conditions~28,141, over half of which were over80
Bitch about that instead.
 
 
On Mon 31 Aug at 5:53pm Dreamer wrote:
TP, you really do need to start doing some basic reading on statistics. Specifically look up the term "selection bias".
I'll try to explain:
There are three commonly reported numbers of mortality that are being kicked about. You'll excuse if I consider the UK as a whole for a minute:
There is the number reported by PHE, which covers solely people who died after a positive Covid test, mostly in clinical or care settings (that bit is important). That number stands at just under 41,500 as of today.
Then there is the number of deaths where Covid is on the death certificate. As of last week tgst number stands at roughly 57,000.
And then there is the number of excess deaths. This is roughly 65,000 at the moment. This is the number epidemiologogists and data scientists prefer to use, because it us least sensitive to government manipulation by changing definitions. It does catch all deaths that are linked to Covid, including people who didn't dare go to the A&E to get urgent treatment, and people whose diagnosis or treatment was delayed due to NHS overloading during the most acute phase. Importantly it also covers all the otherwise healthy people who died of typical and atypical symptomsof Covid at home (e.g. heart attacks more than tripled in London during April - not surprising given that SARS-CoV2 causes blood clotting).
Now we get to the "selection bias" bit. If the main statistic being reported is based on people in clinical and care settings... Surprise, surprise, you will find mostly people with preexisting conditions and OAPs. And you miss all the people who died at home because they were otherwise healthy (see the massive discrepancy between the PHE numbers and the death certificate numbers).
An important factor is of course also that in the initial wave older people were more likely to be affected,in nearly all countries. In the resurgence we are now seeing, that dynamic is changing. Which promises interesting times.
We should, also make a point of remembering what "preexisting conditions" mean. Overweight, even just slightly, diabetic, asmathic, high blood pressure, history of heart disease or cancer, etc. Ultimately a surprisingly wide range of the population has a preexisting condition. And decent people will agree that those of us who don't, should do what we can to protect them.
While I suspect that TP themself won't care about thus, maybe someone else will find it useful.
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On Mon 31 Aug at 7:11pm Mark wrote:
It's hopeless with TP, Dreamer. He's very independent-minded. Thank-you though.
 
 
On Mon 31 Aug at 8:10pm Dreamer wrote:
Nice way of putting it, Mark.
 
 
On Mon 31 Aug at 8:11pm Tom Pain wrote:
Are your excess mortality rates from the ONS?
 
 
On Mon 31 Aug at 9:22pm Tom Pain wrote:
Mark, what do you make of America now, would you say that Paine's re engineering was a success?
 
 
On Mon 31 Aug at 9:40pm Local99 wrote:
Yawn.................
 
 
On Mon 31 Aug at 10:18pm Ferret wrote:
Tom Paine (the real one, not the cantankerous old imposter) didn't re-engineer anything. He was a man of ideas, a revolutionary. It was the hypocrites who created and signed the Declaration of Independence, leaving out any condemnation of slavery, which ultimately, along with his atheism, led to Paine being shunned by the men who built the foundations of the USA. TP, you really should read more about your namesake, and his works.
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On Tue 1 Sep at 12:14pm The Old Mayor wrote:
Does anyone in a care home come out alive ?? Just asking !!
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On Tue 1 Sep at 3:21pm Dreamer wrote:
ONS has them yes (ensure you are using the values for the whole of the UK and not just England and Wales) . Fastest way to find them is to search for "all cause mortality" and "gov.uk"
 
 
On Tue 1 Sep at 6:47pm Tom Pain wrote:
Thanks for the fan mail ferret without a C. You say the sweetest things. I have read some Paine and, quite contrary to your bizarrely prejudiced,dare I say,bigoted and totally unfounded preconceptions, agree with a lot of it. To continue,borrowing from your pompous harranging style, have you studied him? Perhaps you,as a graduate can correct me but I thought he was a Deist,rather than an atheist. I do find it perplexing how the "gang of three" , proclaiming such regard for all that Paine stood for exhibit such fawning regard for the tyrannical WHO and it's capitalist, plutocratic funders. Not to mention it's Tory enablers here in the UK. Are you fearlessly walking with a spring in your step or sliding around in masks wringing your well disinfected hands,terrified of the pestilence? Perhaps it's you who are the imposters.


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That's it Dave - thanks for that. From recollection it was a brilliant event. more
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