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Sole Pro Brexit economic forecast debunked

On 19 Apr 2017 at 11:07pm Brexit Wrecksit wrote:
The sole economic modelling exercise showing material benefits for the UK from Brexit has been debunked as “doubly misleading”, further demolishing the argument that for Britain “no deal would be better than a bad deal” when it comes to the EU.
Work by the “Economists for Brexit” group, led by Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff Business School, before last year’s referendum suggested that if the UK left the EU without a trade deal and unilaterally dropped all tariff barriers on imports the country’s GDP could be boosted by 4 per cent relative to otherwise.
The finding, which contradicted all other studies which showed that Britain would be worse off due to leaving the EU, has been widely cited by hardline Brexiteers and even some business figures as evidence that the UK economy has little to lose if Britain fails to conclude a trade deal with the rest of the EU.
But Professor Alan Winters, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, on Wednesday pointed out that the modelling assumptions that produced the Economists for Brexit headline figure were suspect.
The small print of the modelling reveals the assumption that "general international pressure" over the next decade will compel the EU to reduce its own effective tariffs on imports from 20 per cent to 10 per cent - and that the authors ignore differences in EU safety and quality standards for goods on producer prices.
Professor Winters also points out that the modelling of Minford’s group bizarrely assumes the EU will waive its standards on goods imports from the UK post-Brexit, which implies precisely the sort of deep trade deal which the Economists for Brexit have been consistently arguing that the UK does not need to bother pursuing.

Check it out here »
On 20 Apr 2017 at 7:01am Hot Lips wrote:
This is the type of poster that annoys me the most. Cut and paste dullard.
Bet he lives at home with his mum.
On 20 Apr 2017 at 7:39am We'vehadourfun wrote:
Why do you think people want to hear this nonsense? I can buy the mail for this
On 20 Apr 2017 at 8:08am Road to Hell wrote:
They must have OCD - an obsession with a particular subject and a compulsion to keep posting about it. People like this are killing Lewes Forum.
On 20 Apr 2017 at 8:39am Hot Lips wrote:
I suspect they have not had much bedroom action, can result in some odd behaviour.
On 20 Apr 2017 at 10:36am Pedro wrote:
Bedroom action? You mean they've had trouble sleeping properly?
On 20 Apr 2017 at 12:40pm Voter wrote:
Stop trying to be funny, cos you aint. It's just embarrassing.
On 20 Apr 2017 at 1:01pm Pedro wrote:
Uh huh, ok Mr Hostile at random strangers on a forum. I'm sure being lighthearted is FAR more embarrassing than being perpetually angry and frustrated over the most trivial things.

I look forward to your original, insightful, personal attack response.
On 20 Apr 2017 at 1:01pm Make June the end of May wrote:
I bet Hot Lips, We've had or fun, Road to Hell and Voter look forward to these political posts. It seems to be the only time they ever have anything to say! Come on, talk about something else if that's what you want.
On 20 Apr 2017 at 1:50pm Hot Lips wrote:
@make june the end of may...please point me to another post of yours?
On 20 Apr 2017 at 7:54pm Reality wrote:
We are OUT. Move on, nothing to see here...
On 20 Apr 2017 at 8:03pm We'vehadourfun wrote:
Make June end of may. Your clearly new here. I postplenty thanks. And you?

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