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Lewes Cases Surge

On 14 Aug 2020 at 5:32pm Ferret wrote:
On Wednesday 5th August Lewes district went a whole week without a single Corvid-19 positive case. In the week up to Wednesday 12th August there were 10 new positive cases. What has gone wrong? Is Lewes heading for a local lockdown like Leicester?
On 14 Aug 2020 at 5:58pm Tom Pain wrote:
Don't panic Mr. F. More people are being tested. The tests,not meant for diagnosis are always giving false positives. They may be symptomless and not infectious. It's a shame we locked down or like the Swedes we'd have built up natural immunity. The, unprecedented in medical history, lockdown seems to have been a mistake.
On 14 Aug 2020 at 6:10pm Ferret wrote:
So why no surge in cases in Brighton, or in most other parts of Sussex? And don't regurgitate that rubbish about the Swedes, and that lockdown was a mistake. Sweden's death rate per million was almost as bad as the UK's, and they did have a lockdown of sorts. Their current rate of deaths is much higher than the UK's. Our lockdown was so poorly observed that our death rate has been nightmarish, thanks to Cummings in particular. How many would have died without our late and loose lockdown? 250,000 maybe? Or half a million? Including you and me probably.
On 14 Aug 2020 at 10:28pm Local99 wrote:
Lockdown was observed better than virtually every serious estimate
On 14 Aug 2020 at 11:54pm Tom Pain wrote:
What I can't understand is why you're so determined to be pessimistic Ferret, that you're contradicting yourself. You say I'm talking rubbish about the Swedes and then confirm what I'm saying~similar death rate. But when it comes to rubbish, what is a lockdown of sorts? There's plenty of videos on line showing maskless Swedes on the streets all through the "plague". I agree with you about the goverment's dishonesty but there's no point in terrifying people to make a political point. The sooner sanity reigns, the sooner I can visit family locked up in a solitary confinement that is having a very serious effect on their health. It may be political points to you but to me it is a life or death situation. You profess a great concern for the old and infirm, prove it.
On 15 Aug 2020 at 9:01am Ferret wrote:
Unless people are afraid they won't be careful. That's why so many young people are ignoring the rules and spreading the virus again. You need to look at Swedish health ministry rules, I have. And to compare Sweden's performance with Norway, Denmark and Finland, their neighbours. Sweden 572 deaths per million. Norway 48, Finland 60, Denmark 107. A loose lockdown saves lives, but many more died than needed to, as in the UK.
If people stick to the rules, visit care homes is now possible. We've been visiting my mother (92) at her care home for over a month now. Garden visits have been ok for a while.
Unless this latest surge ends quickly, it will be back to total lockdown for her, and Skype calls the only visual contact with her family.
On 15 Aug 2020 at 10:00pm Tom Pain wrote:
I see what you mean but I have a different view of viruses. They're omnipresent and it seems that waves of them sweep through the world. They pass through us and our immune system deals with them,quickly or slowly and sometimes it can't, too bad for us. So the vulnerable need caring for as far as is practicable. I don't think we can stop corona epidemics and I don't think we need to because we can cope with them. Good diet, exercise and a positive outlook help immensely. Thus we take responsibility for our health and survival and don't have to rely on outside agencies. Pharmaceutical medicines have side effects which often need other medicines to combat them on and on never ending. If you study the horrible list of legal proceedings against pharmaceutical companies you can't help but realise that their practices are often not ethical. The WHO is a revolving door for pharma executives who have divided loyalties, drug testing,financed by pharma is often fudged, it's all reported but not where many people see it. SAGE is full of pharma executives who have responsibilities to their employers, I don't say they're corrupt but they are influenced,knowingly or not. Then we have the vaccine. They are usually tested for over five years. The swine flu vaccine in America was a rush job and was responsible for a lot of casualties,and if I have any choice in the matter I won't take an even more rushed one this time. As far as Sweden is concerned we shall have to wait and see, if they have general immunity there will be no, or a very limited second wave.Ive never heard of them before but if they happen a lockdown in the first wave seems to me the best way of encouraging a second. Considering the fear factor you mentioned, it's a documented fact that the government saw to it that there was plenty of that seeded to the press. Also it's known that fear suppresses the immune system which is something I bear in mind.
On 15 Aug 2020 at 10:03pm Tom Pain wrote:
Yet another PS, I hope your mother is doing well and getting plenty of visits a new encouragement.
On 15 Aug 2020 at 10:23pm Ferret wrote:
I can't go along with that. All the advances in virology, bacteriology and pharmacology that mankind has made in the last century were unnecessary, as good diet, exercise and positive thinking would have done the trick! As a species, we would survive even the most virulent pandemic, but as individuals millions would not. It's profoundly altruistic of you to offer yourself up unprotected for the sake of the species, but the rest of us are not so saintly, and I don't want to see my loved ones dying horribly of a preventable disease. I hope young people get that message somehow, and not yours.
On 16 Aug 2020 at 9:06am Tom Pain wrote:
You misunderstand me completely, in no way am I suggesting what you infer. Perhaps we speak different languages and I have no knowledge of Mustelic. This viruphobia was kicked off by Imperial College's hysterical fear mongering predictions which, bearing in mind their unblemished record for bizarre exaggeration, no sane person would countenance. Why?
On 16 Aug 2020 at 10:14am Ferret wrote:
I'm not wishing to be unkind, but I'm guessing that the learned chaps at IC might know a thing or two about epidemiology which would eclipse our own, and caution them against citing Koch's postulates when discussing the existence and behaviour of a virus in the modern world. After all, viruses and had not been discovered, and aeroplanes not yet invented, at the time Herr Koch operated. Perhaps your knowledge of the subject could do with an update.
On 16 Aug 2020 at 10:32am Mark wrote:
I read an article a few months ago that said that the Swedes are quite fanatic about libertarianism and independence. In terms of civil liberties, they have a government with a very hands-off approach. They're also very self-disciplined. So, effectively, they did a lockdown that was entirely based on personal choices and judgements. This would not work here, obviously.
On 16 Aug 2020 at 11:02am Ferret wrote:
@Mark: Broad generalisations about national traits are generally flawed, but it is a myth that the Swedish government has not imposed lockdown restrictions. For example, there is a ban on visits to care homes, and on travel and gatherings of more than 50 people. The loose lockdown advice has been obeyed well, whereas in the UK the stricter lockdown has been largely disobeyed by a significant proportion of the population (including Cummings of course). We have little to be proud of.
On 16 Aug 2020 at 12:04pm Dreamer wrote:
Please spare us the demonstration of your lack of actual medical knowledge TP. You are spreading utter hogwash.
UK test numbers have not increased since late July.
The tests being undertaken for diagnosis and screening purposes to look at current cases are the same. They do not have high false positive rates. Antibody tests have higher false positives - but those are used for something very different.
Sweden did introduce some restrictions, just not as sweeping as other countries. And they do have death rates far above those of countries that had a properly managed response (i.e. all of their neighbours). Comparison with the UK is misleading, as the UK has shown that locking down too late and abandoning test and trace in the early phases leads to a horrendous outcome for no gain. There is a reason why we have the highest death rate and most economic damage of the G7.
And finally: asymptomatic infected people are contagious. Saying otherwise is dangerous and complete nonsense.
Ferret: while case numbers in general are creeping up, the jump you mention is normal: fluctuations around no numbers. As small groups will be affected at the same time (families or people or work together) it is normal that several positive tests will happen at once. As it stands, incidence rates in the Sussex are very low.
On 16 Aug 2020 at 12:16pm Dreamer wrote:
And a final PS from me as well:
The Swedes have not built up anything resembling herd immunity yet. By their own last tests, they are a factor of 8 off of that.
In fact, a proper epidemiological analysis shows very clearly that no country has yet seen a slw down of infections due to any immunity. It has all been down to restrictions.
Claiming anything else is utter hogwash unsupported by any actual science.
On 16 Aug 2020 at 12:40pm Ferret wrote:
@Dreamer Thanks for your obviously knowledgeable input. Of course I realise that the 10 cases reported in Lewes district is a low number compared with areas like Leicester, but their may be many more undetected cases out there, perhaps as many as 100. Complacency is setting in, especially with younger people as the word gets around that areas such as Lewes district and Brighton & Hove have extremely low numbers of cases. It can all go very wrong very quickly. I've seen the crowds of young people at Barcombe Mills, and at the Anchor on a hot afternoon. No social distancing at all.
On 16 Aug 2020 at 12:42pm Ferret wrote:
Oops! Correction: THERE may be many more undetected cases out there.
On 16 Aug 2020 at 1:04pm Dreamer wrote:
I agree completely Ferret.
While I am sceptical of the published daily numbers (they are too low), the weekly ONS bulletin is excellent. And it provides a very good baseline to use with the daily PHE numbers. PHE have us at around 1000 new cases a day. The ONS estimate is about 4000. The latter is based on random sampling, so should give a good estimate. Which implies a factor of 4.
We can all contribute to better estimates by installing the Kings College, ZOE, Covid Symptom Tracker app. The group behind this, run by Tim Spector, has been doing phenomenal work. And if nothing else it us a very easy way to get a test if you have symptoms.
On 17 Aug 2020 at 10:48am Tom Pain wrote:
Those learned chaps at IC got it WRONG, no matter how learned they are. This Coke is postulating that you're avoiding the question of WHY the learned chaps who advise the government took the advice of Ferguson's department when they have ALWAYS exaggerated threats in the most blatant manner . This is well documented and easily observed.
The question WHY is obviously merely rhetorical. I know you will avoid it with all the weasely devices in your considerable repertoire. You are quite as adept in the slippery department as your hate figure Cummings. WHY?
On 17 Aug 2020 at 12:07pm Dreamer wrote:
Just to ensure I fully understand what you are claiming, TP:
The predictions of Imperial College on what was expected to happen in the absence of restrictions do not align with what happened in the presence of restrictions, so in your 'analysis' they "got it wrong"?
I am sure you will be able to support that with a bit more actual data. So please do.
And while you are at it, look up the Dunning-Kruger effect and think about how that might apply to you. I'll help you: You have read a handful of articles (none of them submitted to peer review or any form of scrutiny, I suspect), you may or may not have made your own magic little Excel table, and you appear to believe your understanding of the situation is better than that of people who spent years studying and researching these things. Based on this overinflated sense of mission you then spread utter nonsense, conspiracy theories, and dangerous misinformation to people who are looking for actual information. It is shameful. That you dare take the name of a key figure of enlightenment as your pseudonym fits perfectly with that.
On 17 Aug 2020 at 12:28pm Ferret wrote:
@Tom Pain I don't know what you meant by "This Coke is postulating..." I also realise that you are thoroughly convinced of the things you write about, and i respect that. But you can't expect those of us who think differently to sit by and let you try to convince others of your dangerous theories. And by the way, Tom Paine is the correct spelling, and I assumed your version was an attempt at wit which doesn't really work.
On 17 Aug 2020 at 12:52pm Tom Pain wrote:
No it wasn't, I was being a real pain about something and I wish I could change it without too much bother. Thank you for your kind condescension. Something you might like~ Craig Murray " Stinking Tory Corruption" It's my opinion that these crooks will keep the covid caper running as long as possible to screw as much filthy lucre as they can from the public purse.
On 17 Aug 2020 at 1:38pm Ferret wrote:
Well I think you've hit on something we can agree on. There are plenty of Tory types who see the pandemic as an opportunity to make their careers and/or their fortunes. But the fact remains that it is with us, and we have to take care not to make things worse.
On 17 Aug 2020 at 1:57pm Dreamer wrote:
That's the thing TP: we are all in this and none of us can change it beyond acting responsibly.
But spreading misinformation, alternative facts and conspiracy theories only makes things worse and undermines attempts at easing the situation.
On 17 Aug 2020 at 1:59pm Tom Pain wrote:
Wouldn't I just find another! John Ward's "the Slog" no tin foil hats for this boy. "How big pharma's tentacles have the NHS by the throat"
On 17 Aug 2020 at 11:39pm Tom Pain wrote:
Conspiracy theories! I love it. All thoughts are theories. Don't think, whatever you do. Don't ever wonder why. Accept whatever you're told. Tories ripping off the taxpayer? You must be out of your mind. That's a conspiracy theory. You'll never prove it, they're in power. Media headlines~ Storm Cedric approaching hurricanes,torrents of rain, biblical floods. Pestilence stalks the streets. Man Utd sign new striker. How can anyone take any of it seriously. It's all media drama. But it sells, that's the bottom line,ooh check the side bar, the lines of those bottoms, and further up..... omg. Do me a favour.
On 18 Aug 2020 at 9:46am Ferret wrote:
Stick to the subject, Mr. Pain without an e. Now what exactly was your opinion of the lockdown?
On 18 Aug 2020 at 1:35pm Green Sleeves wrote:
Why does Mr Pain talk in strange brief soundbites? Its the kind of style you'd expect to hear from a native american chief. Except, I think the Native American chief would make more sense and come up with some actually enlightened and interesting views.

Tom Pain perhaps should adopt a native name, which would roughly translate to "Talks much, says little".
On 18 Aug 2020 at 4:04pm Tom Pain wrote:
Well, well, the green one returns,full of joy and good will and a pleasant smile. If only more people on the forum could follow your example of progressive kindness to all, regardless of race or politics it would be a much better place. I must say that ferret has rather taken your old position over and his technique of put downs puts you in the shade. He has mastered a really sly method of snide insinuation and sarcasm and that favourite trick of yours~"well I suppose you don't care about blah,blah", I can't think what the methods called, perhaps you could tell me with a delightful smirk. Don't judge ferret by that last rather facile remark, he's good. He's a science graduate,you know, my guess is Behaviorism or Sociology, whatever it is it's given him a practiced condescending air that even surpasses yours. Nice to make your acquaintance again,oh yes, Greensleeves is a good name for a native American, I'd say. Then again Passing Water might be more appropriate, ta ta.
On 18 Aug 2020 at 4:59pm Green Sleeves wrote:
I'd say that sounds like you missed me.
On 19 Aug 2020 at 2:02pm Dreamer wrote:
TP, the one thing that amazes me is how you claim to be opposed to the Tories, yet you (and others like you) are actively helping them dodge responsibility for destroying the economy and complacently letting over 60,000 people die.
How you may ask? By muddying the waters with your spreading of utter nonsense and conspiracy theories regarding Covid.
That was what sparked this discussion. Your easily seen through attempt at changing the topic is just that.
On 19 Aug 2020 at 9:11pm Tom Pain wrote:
Your conspiracy theory that the Tories are destroying the economy and letting 60,000 people die needs a little proof, does it not? What, pray is my conspiracy theory about covid, what is the utter nonsense? How have I changed the topic? Simply throwing vague accusations around is just grandstanding and attention seeking. You may have a big mouth but try using it constructively instead of just making a noise.
On 20 Aug 2020 at 2:21pm Dreamer wrote:
TP, while we all appreciate you are a closet Tory, you do seem to be able to read. So I will point you to the facts on deaths and economy:
The UK has over 65000 excess deaths this year. Unless you can point to some other catastrophic cause of mass dying, these deaths are the result of Covid. Indeed, in England alone there was a stretch of at least three weeks where more people were dying as a result of Covid than all other causes combined. The current government has thus overseen the highest death rate in Europe.
Regarding the economy we also have a lot of clear evidence. Starting from no other European country seeming such a large and persistence shrinking of the job market and ending with the UK having the largest drop in GDP of the G7.
As always, no need to take my word for it. The information and detailed data is available from the ECDC, the ONS and (in the case of the economy) the news rag of your choice.
That's the facts. Like it or not, but your Tories f***es up big time.
No regarding the second bit: you asked for examples of the nonsense, untruths and conspiracy you are spreading. While thus thread is already full of a point by point discussion of it, I'll humour you with an example. Your first contribution to thus thread:
"The tests,not meant for diagnosis are always giving false positives. They may be symptomless and not infectious. It's a shame we locked down or like the Swedes we'd have built up natural immunity."
Every single statement in that paragraph is proven untrue. The details of that are in my first contribution to this thread.
So, as mentioned before: you have shown repeatedly that you do not understand the basics of this whole topic. When pressed for evidence to the utter hogwash you spread, you plead ignorance and complain that people who try to counter your spread of misinformation of being condescending or you offer links to blog posts from a supposed Swiss doctor that are themselves completely free of evidence (different thread in this forum).
So please: stuck to what you are good at. Moan about DFLs, troll the forum or whatever. But please stop spreading misinformation on a public health crisis that has everyone deeply concerned.
On 20 Aug 2020 at 10:40pm Tom Pain wrote:
Covid death toll 41,000 Reuters. Not dreamer the misinformer. Moaning about DFLs? pure lying misinformation. No point in continuing, you're a proven fraud.
On 21 Aug 2020 at 10:16am Ferret wrote:
I'm glad Mr Pain without an e has accepted the appalling "Covid death toll" as fact, and of course he is not therefore disagreeing with the 65,000 excess deaths, since the 41,000 is part of the 65,000. I'm also glad that the surge in Lewes district numbers has subsided. According to the map on the PHE dashboard page, most of the cases in Lewes district are in East Saltdean and Telscombe area. Let's hope they are younger people who won't get very ill. Take care Tom, and don't forget your mask.
On 21 Aug 2020 at 2:08pm Tom Pain wrote:
First off, I don't wear a mask, they're very bad for your oral health and,as I've been advised by experts are as useful for virus protection as chicken wire for excluding mosquitoes. Secondly, I was replying to the claim that all 65,000 were due to covid. How many of those excess deaths are due to the lockdown,we will find out eventually. You could help me by telling me if finding part of homo sapiens chromosome 8 in the tested samples and that being an indicator of a positive for covid invalidates the test.
On 21 Aug 2020 at 2:28pm Green Sleeves wrote:
@TP, I'm sure nobody loves wearing a mask, but its now mandatory in many places. Don't you find your options limited by simply not just taking a simple precaution that is likely to not harm you? Do you always have to be that person to stand out for the sake of standing out and claim it as a matter of principle? The big bad state (and its not my choice of government) are scarcely imposing anything drastic currently. Better hygiene, face masks and not overcrowding places are the only things that we're basically being "forced" to comply with......perhaps its a slippery slope to "1984", but it doesn't feel that restricting right now, especially given at a bare minimum, 40k britons have died from coronavirus.

Just wear a mask, you fool.

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