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Day Of Inaction

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On 22 Dec 2015 at 10:23am PN wrote:
With the boundary commission`s recommendations implemented, and voters registered, such is the concentration of Labour voters that they would have to be 13% ahead to win. Currently they are stuck on 29% to the blues 40%.
Killer fact
In the 94 English seats Labour must win, four out of five new votes need to come from Tory voters.
Cat in hells chance
Still 29% is a lot as is the 14% supporting UKIP. The growth of Paleozoic socialism and extreme Nationalism across Europe is certainly not to my taste and for this reason the disenfranchised moderate Labour voters are badly missed. In PR Europe they have ( says Paul Mason) made common cause with Liberal Conservatives .
How interesting.
Europe will be the great issue of the next year and whilst not a Europhile any means I hope this will be an opportunity for such an alliance of moderate sensible rather boring people.
Does anyone wish to join me in my crusade for uninspiring cautious and sensible polices including remaining in an admittedly far from perfect Europe .
Anyone who wishes to make a stand for fudge compromise and consensus may wish to contribute to the day of inaction scheduled for the 25th in which we do nothing out of the ordinary.
Yay ....

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On 22 Dec 2015 at 10:50am Yawn wrote:
Perhaps we can have a separate forum just for Ian and PN so they can spout their inane, garbled tripe without us having to read it.
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On 22 Dec 2015 at 4:03pm Corbynista wrote:
This is the only and I do mean the only thing i agree with PN on.yes Europe is far from perfect ,but yes we should stay in.
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On 22 Dec 2015 at 4:28pm rippingyarns wrote:
Only a complete imbecile would recommend staying in a political union that is wholly against reform, is run by an unelected, undemocratic commission and is actively destroying the continent of which is ostensibly represents.
Why on earth are you against self-determination and independence?
The UK's future is much brighter and more prosperous outside this club, where we will be trading and co-operating with the wider world not a declining union, have a sensible migration policy based on skilled workers from all sections of the globe, restore national sovereignty and democracy to our parliament, restore fishing grounds given away by Heath and can once again become a prosperous island nation that has given so much to the world.
People like you want us obliterated within a united states of Europe reduced to a glorified county council.
Norway and Switzerland are Europe's most prosperous countries and not in the EU.

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On 22 Dec 2015 at 4:38pm rippingyarns wrote:
Also 'Corbynista'
You do realise that Jeremy voted 'no' to the EEC in 1975, eurosceptic enough to not even want to join a common market and wise enough to understand it would amount to a significant transfer of sovereignty and was detrimental to our fishing, agricultural and heavy industries.
Typical 'trendy' Corbyn supporter who has no idea of Labour's traditional eurosceptic position or of political history in general.
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On 23 Dec 2015 at 8:09am Annette Curtin-Twitcher wrote:
The EU has never been a left-right issue. It's probably the only thing that Tony Benn and Enoch Powell agreed about.
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On 23 Dec 2015 at 9:29am Rippingyarns wrote:
Indeed and hence the reason why the no campaign lost as it was seen as being populated by those on the political extremes despite their arguments turning out to be sound.
There is no logical argument to staying in but they will rely heavily on scaring the British public with a fear campaign and sadly it will probably work
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On 23 Dec 2015 at 12:42pm PN wrote:
Yes there is RY - the argument is this . Europe is largest trading partner , millions of jobs and home spend on this trade and while much of it may carry on a proportion may not . Furthermore the outers seem to have no understanding of the risks involved or any plan B whatsoever.
I will be developing this and other points as the year goes on but not all fear is "phobia" no matter how much the word is misused.
Look around at the families whose lives you are gambling with and think hard about the supposed horrors of bureaucratic interference and the odd silly regulation. As for immigartion , fine if you want EU migration to stop you tell me how we make up the black hole in our public finances and who pays
Who pays
Whats the plan
Answer those questions fully and the feat will go . You will not because there is no answer
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On 23 Dec 2015 at 2:31pm Corbynista wrote:
Much has it pains me to say it, PN is absolutely right on this.Our future is within the EU.if UKIP and the Tory right have their way Britain would end up as a kind of impoverished feudal Downton Island on the fringes of the continent,ruled over by plummy vowelled toffs and gents in car coats with brylcreemed hair and tobacco stained teeth and beery breath.at the bottom we would have forelock tugging serfs in shell suits scrabbling around for crumbs and nicking each others cell phones..A bit like today in fact,only ten times worse.
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On 23 Dec 2015 at 10:54pm Rippingyarns wrote:
Wow i mean I knew you guys had no arguments but that was extremely.
PN: You do not need to be in a political union to trade with the EU. Countries like the USA, Canada, Australia, Switzerland all trade freely and co-operatively with the EU but are not in a political union. The UK is the EU's biggest export market and to somehow think that they wouldn't negotiate a free trade is ludicrous in fact a German EU trade minister stated that in the event of a Brexit the EU would negotiate one within 24 hours.
The EU is in economic decline, with a relatively shrinking and ageing population. When Britain joined, the EEC accounted for 37% of world GDP. Today it only accounts for less than 20% and also the UK's exports to the rest of the world are growing nearly three times as fast as the UK's exports to the EU. The UK's three fastest growing export markets are now outside EU.
In essence your scaremongering doesn't work and is a lie - it is actually you who is gambling with British families future by wanting to tie and submerge us irrecoverably to a declining, bureaucratic union. Look at Greece look at Spain they are in terrible economic trouble and peoples lives have been ruined by the EU but still you ignore the facts. Our future is much more prosperous outside.
Corbynista: Once again how many time do I have to point out to you that Euroscepticism has been a part of the labour party for much longer than it's Blairite Europhile position. Stop equating it with only UKIP and the tories as it's plainly wrong especially seeing as most of the large transfers of sovereignty to the EU have come under Conservative governments. The rest of your post is inane rubbish and it's clear you can't even argue your case properly which shows you have no case.
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On 24 Dec 2015 at 8:50am PN wrote:

RY - So if the company you are working for depends on exports to Germany , let us say and will immediately be subject to an inward tariff . Let us say that its revenue is cut by 5% ( not unreasonable ). That would be let us say 50% of its profits. I am assuming the customers are not going to find alternative suppliers but they may well.
Do you think that will have no effect? Surely you noticed how fragile the modern highly geared Company is, do you think the country is in a position to withstand that sort of shock across the board ? Talk about highly geared ….HAVE YOU ANY IDEA HOW LARGE THE NATIONAL DEBT IS? The annual, deficit looks as if it is going to be about £75 billion again this year. Conceive of what a 2% loss of revenue would do to this country. You think, do you that our act of economic self-immolation would have no effect on the rates we might finance our bonds with (currently super low ) BOLD!!!!
Lets have a look at details , Britain is dangerously ( in the opinion of some ) dependent on the export of financial services and for the last ten years plus has been ( in Europe ) within the legal framework of the European Financial Services Act covering Insurance banking et all … the largest employer in the South East by a long long way .
Our membership of this is in fact a function of the EEA to which we have automatic membership as members of the EU. That is the thing Norway is a member of. Maybe we would go down that route may maybe maybe …Or maybe the EU would delight in the opportunity to hurt the City of London and (let us not forget) the South East
So how many Lewes jobs would you imagine might be effected by that?
RY I will be developing some of these points over the next year but understand this . I am not anti UKIP I am not in love with Europe I do not hate this country and I am also annoyed about immigration not to say the ooman rights act . I get it, I really do, but none of that stacks up against imperiling the mortgages job and lives of Lewes and the rest of the UK
On the position of Spain and Greece ....well they are trapped by membership of the Euro. The UK gets all the benefits of the Euro without having to be in it. Its a fantastic deal !!!
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On 24 Dec 2015 at 10:44am Rippingyarns wrote:
I think you are seriously missing the point as I have stated in the event of a brexit the UK and the EU will negotiate a mutually beneficial free trade agreement. Trade will continue as usual and actually small to medium sized businesses are generally in favour of leaving as the red tape imposed on them at a EU level makes their lives extremely difficult.
The EU comprises of only 28 countries out 50.
It is a declining export market for the UK - We will be much better placed and more prosperous to look elsewhere for our trade.
While we are in the EU we are unable to make our own trade deals and have been forced to give up our seat at the world trade organisation.
I think its hilarious you have mentioned the Euro . There is only one end game of the EU and that is a federal superstate with all members in the Euro that is what will happen to the UK if we stay in the EU. Ever closing union is it's purpose and mark my words they will force us into the euro soon enough.
You also spoke about debt. Yes the UK is crippled by debt but tying ourselves to a declining union that is imploding is not going to help with that - saving 10 billion pounds sterling a year certainly is going to help reduce the debt. I'm astounded you think the EU is good value for money it's profligacy is criminal.
Yes we need proper immigration controls and we can;t do that while in the EU. I'm sure you have seen the report from the Bank of England stating that immigration has supressed wages for those on low incomes. Those are the people I care about they shouldn't have to suffer because you want to be in an ideological superstate.
Why is the most prosperous countries in the world are not part of the EU??? you are scaremongering and don't back up your arguments by facts so i'm happy to continue these debates for as long as you want.
the problem is you don't think the UK is good enough to run it's own affairs something we support countries from all over the world to do.
The EU is not Europe. It is a badly run organisation that has destroyed the lives of many people and is now changing the fabric of European society by allowing 1 million migrants to enter with no idea who they are.
If the UK is to survive as proud, independent nation with global trade we must leave.
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On 24 Dec 2015 at 6:18pm pn wrote:

The UK and the EU will negotiate a mutually beneficial free trade agreement. Trade will continue as usual
This is a hope it is not a reality, you have absolutely no idea. You cannot even tell me what we would try to do never mind what we would achieve
As for your fantasy about finding a lot of new customers so…never mind eh … imagine telling that to a real shop or cabbie or welder or builder . He would, quite rightly , tell you to take your “theory” and insert it carefully in your fundament . That which pays the bills is not lightly mucked around with.
We will never be forced into the Euro .Those who at the time recommended it ( and I was not one of them ) look ridiculous . The fact a Euro exists however which makes pan European trade much much easier is a massive boon for us .We were able to negotiate continued membership whilst remaining in control, of our own monetary policy and currency. Its a great deal . Many in Germany ( in particular) note with some chagrin that we always seem to need an extra sausage.
£10 billion. Our National debt is (Q1 2015 )is £1.56 trillion. This figure is so small you can hardly see it ABOUT 0.3% of annual state spending . I appreciate you think you could knock that straight of the £75bn deficit but there is no conceivable “deal” we can do which is going to remove us entirely form, the costs of the free European Market. The danger to the cost of financing our existing debt is real and unknown you are talking about a minuscule dreadful burden we carry without even noticing it . This country is like many people right now , able to finance huge mortgages whilst inters tartes are zero but looking nervously ahead
…and now you want to disrupt trade cripple business and put a load of people out of work on the basis of a theory supported by such business friendly heros as Tony Benn
This is madness .
Don`t tell me about avoiding facts . Do you think we should apply to join the EEA or try to negotiate a load of replacement treaties like Switzerland … you have no idea and nor has anyone else . There is no plan B .You want us to trust Nigel Farage ( or whoever) to do a deal he will tell us about later …oh fantastic !!!
I notice you are wonderfully silent on the devastation that this will bring to financial services and our place within that framework . Have you any idea how many people are employed in these industries ? Facts are what I want not just emoting about this great Nation
Immigration
EU immigration is an undeniable and vast bonus to the exchequer as well as the main source of the Nations recent growth . If you want to get rid of it you need to explain how this country gets by without that growth . Christ knows how you do that !! It is only that growth that has allowed us not to eliminate our deficit and maintain creditor confidence
Most migration to this country is non-European. The main source of migration to this country (once you strip out students) is arranged (usually cousin) marriage from the Indian subcontinent. African and East European tie for second. UKIP are very open about wanting more commonwealth migration, which in practice means Africans and Indian subcontinent).
.So what do you want an illiterate bride from the Mirpur valley or a Polish plumber or French City worker ? I know which I prefer so stop pretending that our immigration problems are to do with the EU.
We all know which immigration is a problem and if you want a competition on who can be the most politically incorrect then we can start any time
 
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On 24 Dec 2015 at 7:08pm Rippingyarns wrote:
Time wasting bore. When you can back up your arguments with facts and not rely on hyperbole i'll possible debate this with you but your posts are incoherent and vague.
 
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On 24 Dec 2015 at 7:12pm Rippingyarns wrote:
You need to watch this excellent, dispassionate case for leaving by Peter Hitchens someone infinitely more knowledgeable about this subject than you or me.

Watch the video »
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On 24 Dec 2015 at 7:20pm Rippingyarns wrote:
not sure that worked.. attached again.

Watch the video »
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On 25 Dec 2015 at 10:20am pn wrote:
I know this piece and unlike most of Lewes I like Peter Hitchens but he is a polemicist not the CEO of a major Company (let us say).
I disagree with his historical approach which is to imagine we have ever been free to be isolated from Europe . That is not true , we would have lost at Warterloo if that were the case.
1688 was , in some ways a merger with Holland ( reverse takeover you might say)..anyway interesting stuff
Try this for the German POV

Watch the video »
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On 27 Dec 2015 at 7:37pm Rippingyarns wrote:
The whole point the remain camp are missing is we will 100% negotiate a free trade deal if we leave.
No one wants to be in a political union with these eurocrats.
Again 33 million pounds a day so they can pay themselves 400k salaries and waste money while we let the north be submerged in water because of inadequate flood defences.
Voting to leave is the morally and intellectually right thing to do.
 
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On 28 Dec 2015 at 9:57am PN wrote:
The whole point the remain camp are missing is we will 100% negotiate a free trade deal if we leave.
That is not true anmd you really must stop stating things as facts when you have no idea and cannot know such a thing. In fact ,we cannot negotiate with the EU at all without acceding to some of their demands . In other words what we do anyway.
We can either join a looser arrangement like Norway or try to replicate the Free Trade by doing single treaties with each country as well as we can
No-one has any idea what may or may not be the outcome of such a process - It has never happened
 
 
On 28 Dec 2015 at 11:02am Ripping yarns wrote:
We have a huge trade deficit with the EU.
We buy much more from them then they sell to us so it is in their interest to have a free trade deal. Do you honestly think the Germans would jeopardise selling their cars to us just to be difficult.
As I have stated before every prosperous country not in the EU has a free trade deal and we will have ours when we leave this political union.
We would also be free to make beneficial trade deals with the wider world with our own trade delegates looking out for our own interests.
The remain can't even work out that a political union and trade are two separate things.
Free from it's shackles the UK's trade future is very bright just as it was before 1972.
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On 28 Dec 2015 at 2:41pm Pn wrote:

Errm well I don`t know that I`d blame the EU especially but there was nothing bright about 1972. No, the Germans will indeed continue to sell their cars to us. We, on the other hand may find it very hard to sell services legal insurance banking and so on to them. As much of this is earnt by companies domiciled in the UK it does not appear in the trade figures (. That btw is why the trade deficit which was once a big deal, is not any more )
A UK Insurer for example can sell Insurance to Germans and visa versa . Even the mighty US cannot . AIG , as it is now called again is big enough to set up a UK subsidiary but the costs are vast and constitute a huge trade barrier for our most important employers and exporters .
Insurance is the largest employer in the South East and financial services our most important industry.
Norway gets around this by being a member of the EEA as does Iceland and others , for example but that has its own problems. There is also an inward tarriff generally of course but I think it likely that this would be resolved ( Not likely enough to take a chance but likely all the same ).
Without wishing to go on forever if that was the plan and I saw agreement to it then one could compare it reasonably . As it stands there is no comparison to make . We are being asked to choose between a perfectly workable position and an unknown and possibly catastrophic mystery. The big plus side ,( we are told ) is being able to reduce immigration.
The problem is the immigration we get form the EU is the most beneficial and has been the largest single reason we do not sink into the fiscal soup a danger we are nowhere getting free of .It is the only reason the economy has grown. UKIP have explicitly suggested increasing immigration for India and Africa…. Not what I would recommend !!!
Its no good you saying it will all be ok, you don`t know, you don`t even know the problems far less the solutions ( which is not to say I am so clever or anything – no-one could ) . None of this is theory or debating in any esoteric way I know plenty of people in Lewes who will be directly affected .
Wouldn`t you rather your friends and family kept their jobs and mortgage rates did not explode due to a credit strike taxes shoot up just when the last thing the country needs is a slow down.
Is it really worth the risk just to annoy Polly Toynbee ( a compelling reason for doing anything admittedly )
Right I have gone onm more than enough – no more from me until next year when I will be trying to alert people to the appalling dangers these wild eyed purple extremists are leading us towards

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On 28 Dec 2015 at 5:10pm rippingyarns wrote:
Stop scaremongering. Try some facts to back up your arguments.
Let's look at your jobs scaremongering:
From the Institute for Economic Affairs:
The worst case scenario will be a failure to negotiate a free trade deal in the result of Brexit. If this were the case, though extremely unlikely, both parties will be bound by the World Trade Organization’s ‘most favoured nation’ (MFN) tariffs paid by other developed countries. This will prevent the imposition of punitive tariffs by the EU following the UK’s exit, meaning job losses will not be significant.'
Also the ability of the EU to impose retaliatory tari s is severely limited under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. The UK cannot be discriminated against by the EU. The EU could not, legally, impose high tariffs on British goods unless it imposes the same tariffs on every other nation.
Also you mistakenly suggested EU immigration has been broadly beneficial however with no control over out borders it has resulted in the suppression of wages for those on the lowest incomes. If the UK decided to tighten up its rules for EU foreign workers, it could – if it chose – introduce a visa points system. This would allow for the jobs market to draw in more of the UK’s unemployed, while at the same time not adding to pressures associated with major increases in population.
Let's look are your bizarre mortgage scaremongering now:
The removal of institutional financial ties between the UK and the Eurozone reduces the threat of the UK being seen to be liable for any EU bail out of any failing Eurozone state (there's quite a few). this would likely improve the credit status of the UK Government, with wider high street gains and more safety for mortgage providers.
Finally more on trade:
The EU’s negotiating hand is actually weakened by a diversity of interests, many of which completely differ from UK interests. This dilutes and slows the process of reaching trade deals. The fact that the EU has failed to get a free trade deal with China, but both Iceland and Switzerland have, is case in point. Major investing countries want access to the UK because they know Britain is a good bet due to a whole list of inherent advantages that have nothing to do with being in the EU, and indeed are harmed by it. There are better prospects for trade deals if the UK is in charge of its own trade policy.
Finally let's look at your financial service scaremongering:
In very broad terms, four fiths of the British economy has very little to do with exports. Less than a tenth of the economy exports to the EU, but their access costs are shared out to everybody, regardless of whether they need the regulation or not. Leaving the EU would allow the UK to liberate its non-exporting businesses like services from the burden of EU rules and would allow Britain to develop new trading relationships with the rest of the world.
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On 28 Dec 2015 at 10:39pm pn wrote:
Grrr-can`t leave it
I find your complaint that I don`t have enough facts a tad disingenuous ….( he said diplomatically )
For a start services exports (IT accounting Insurance et al)arethe jewel in the crown of the UK economy, accounting for 40% of total UK exports- to call it non exporting lacks factiness don`t you think ?
I am talking about real things, notably the Freedom of Financial Services Legislation whereas you are just picking lines from suitably chosen guessers . Ask anyone in Financial services about the importance of this frame work to their jobs and they will tell you . You seem to be unaware of its existence or the real barriers to trade it has circumvented. Facts please not guff , what exactly do you plan to do about it ?
Answer or admit you have no answer
You say ‘The fact that the EU has failed to get a free trade deal with China, but both Iceland and Switzerland have’
Well …..Iceland is a member of the EEA and Switzerland uniquely replaces all of the EU`s free trade functions with unilateral treaties . Both of their arrangements require ( for example ) the freedom of movement of peoples. (The Swiss voted for a a quota system would, if implemented, violate the agreement between Switzerland and the European Union on the free movement of persons, and require the renegotiation of all bilateral agreements ). In other words these countries are semi detached ( at best) offsetting costs and sovereignty against trade . Whether such options would be available to jus is uncertain but they also have no formal negotiating powers and you have not suggested either route , you just say . It will be ok somehow
Where are your facts? What is the plan ? No more guff please; answers
I don`t know how much danger there is of retaliatory tariffs ( above ordinary ones) per se but the WTO would certainly be powerless to prevent a vindictive attitude to unilateral trade agreements along Swiss lines ( Is that the plan … we still don`t know ) . That isn`t the main point .The obstacles to trade between Nations are only partly a matter of outright tariffs . All those annoying regulatory details we are signed up to they are ways of homogenising the European market without which we either have no standards their standards or we will be prevented from exporting ( Iceland and Switzerland are signed up to practically all) . Outside the EU at any time any British good or service could be subject to regulatory ban or discrimination and this is almost impossible to prevent.
That is what the EU does and that is exactly why it does need political clout
On stats swapping ..well its tedious really but …. The CBI, aggregated research already available it has came to a “conservative” estimate that the benefits of EU membership amount to 4-5% of GDP pro EU think tanks warn of Armageddon but even Brexit campaigners admit to a degree of uncertainty and a painful period of adaption. The City and Business have always solidly backed EU membership . Trade Unions and the far left and far right less so …. Who do you trust on the effect on trade eh ? They could all be wrong
On the supposed vulnerability of the Uk to calls made by the EU that is in the price now . The complete uncertainty after Brexit is not and even if we only face a few years of choppy waters , the best case scenario the country is so precariously geared that this could easily be a disaster . It would take very little indeed with National Debt above 70% of GDP
On immigration the net benefit to the exchequer of EU migration is accepted as is the contribution to growth. No-one is disputing this expect you and the point is that this growth has made our deficit fall as a proportion of GDP just about keeping us moving in the right direction . Take that away and there is an immediate obvious risk . Fact.
Immigrations’ affect affect on wages is mixed but the EU`s is the most positive and overall I `d say it increases wages taken in isolation by its disproportionate economic activity. I`ll do some more detail on this another time. Of course some people just don`t like so many foreigners here ( I understand that ) and that’s a factor too but the overwhelming majority of costs and problems certainly emanate from non EU migrants .
If, like the Guardian say , your objective is to put Sports Direct out of Business by obliging them to get rid of nice Polish Graduates and over-pay welfare dependent fat fagging morons. Great , I like the cheapo clobber personally , I don`t want rip off Britain back, I don`t believe the work shy would do the work and I doubt the whole, model would survive .
( That’s an opinion)
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On 1 Jan 2016 at 2:57am Corbynista wrote:
PN is right on this as ironically is Corbyn.The fact that both Benn and Corbyn were once against EU membership is of no matter,both Corbyn and McDonald now both recognize the social and economic benefits of remaining in the EU as do most of us on the left and centre in the Labour party and throughout the country and we will be actively campaigning to stay in.It is the only sensible choice.If you want to know the merits and demerits of the case for staying in just look at those swivel eyed right wing loonies who want to leave.Lawson,Fox,Farage,Redwood,Patterson et al.
 
 
On 3 Jan 2016 at 1:39pm ripping yarns wrote:

You're a swivel eyed left wing moron, your party is ruined because of Corbyn.
The only reason the Labour party turned into a europhile party is because they thought they could undo thatcher's trade union reforms.
You are simply not educated enough in this matter to debate it properly.


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Southover Grange and Gardens

This is a sad and infuriating subject, as so much misinformation is pushed, and the far-right lap it up as their truth. I was... more
QUOTE OF THE MOMENT
I may not agree with you, but I will defend to the death your right to make an ass of yourself.
Oscar Wilde