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3% Interest Rate Rise - Coming Post Brexit

On 15 May 2016 at 12:59pm PN wrote:
The MPC have been thinking and cautious thought they are , they feel obliged to tell us the consequences of Brexit. It was interesting to see Mr Carney put some numbers on it this morning .
As we know , interest rates are still at virtually zero and this is because the B of E feels there is enough capacity in the economy to turn the demand this cheap money will inject into growth muscle ( so to speak).
With the loss of investment and dangers to trade and services leaving the EU would being ( and god forbid , leaving the single market) Mr Carney reckons the increased tendency to inflation would make something like a 3% interest rate increase the lowest sustainable level .
I don`t know about you but I could do without that for a start . People have been quick to say the B of E has not been too bright with its predictions and it is true they have generally underestimated the inflationary risks at any point in the cycle . Mr Carney , has however been spot on during this most difficult period and if the outcome is even worse he would not wish to cause too much panic
There is now matter of weeks to save our jobs homes and future from the disaster that some are determined , it seems to attack us with.
I daresay the zealots hereabouts will not admit it but their economic case has now been discarded entirely ( no surprise , there was none ). It wil now be a matter of whipping up anti-immigrant frenzy spreading Daily Maily rumours and dipping into the mass of contradictory currents within the EU to invent scarey pictures . It may be an amusing hobby but it is not to be taken seriously .
Save Our Jobs Save Our Houses -Help save our country form its silliest and on occasion nastiest elements by getting out there telling anyone you know to vote remain.
On 15 May 2016 at 1:15pm Paul Trollman wrote:
Sounding laughably desperate now Paul, your illiterate scare mongering has been exposed time and time again on here for months so give it a rest. You never have a proper argument do you?
Let's look at how the EU has destroyed the live of our fisherman and fishing industry.
Perhaps you should care about their jobs not EU fat cats and bureaucrats.

Watch the video »
On 15 May 2016 at 3:40pm Clifford wrote:
Surely it's all the fault of 'the unions', PN. You know, 'the unions' that support remaining in the EU.
On 15 May 2016 at 3:49pm Zebedee wrote:
It doesn't take an economist to work out that come Brexit our economy will take a right battering. Virtually every authoritative world economic and financial body have already said so. It's a given.

What interests me is how uniformed Brexiters are. None of them seem to have any idea how the UK will recover post Brexit. What model is there for the UK? All we can look at is other non-EU European countries that trade with the EU. It is illuminating and it's not a surprise that the Leave.EU lot try their hardest not to talk about plans post Brexit, preferring instead their lies about the National Health and the 350m pounds we pay to the EU every millisecond or so.

By a long way the most likely option post Brexit (and probably the only option) will be via the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the EU insist that all countries who trade with them via these groups also allow free movement of peoples. So.. we still won't control our borders, we will still pay in, we will lose our rebate and we will have to accept EU trade regulations. Pretty much a lose-lose situation hey? Much like Norway. What was that about Albania Michael?

The biggy with any trade agreement with the EU is that they never seem to include services. 78% of the UKs GDP is generated by services (and the lion's share of that by financial services). Oh dear.

That's the UK pretty much financially sunk then.. oh sorry, I mean England as the Scots will be off out and over to the EU pretty quickly.

This is possibly the most important vote we will have in our lifetimes. It is saddening to see that those that support Brexit don't know any facts and believe the rubbish put out by Leave.UK and the Murdoch, Desmond and Barclay Brothers press. These are not people who have your interests at heart. They only want to increase their wealth and power, become bigger cogs in a smaller machine. They don't give a toss for you and only use you to further their own ends.

Don't be a turkey and vote for Christmas.
On 15 May 2016 at 4:01pm The Old Mayor wrote:
It's not about economics - it's all about sovernity, and the right to be governed by elected politicians and not anonymous bureaucrats. Say no to the dictatorship of Europe.
On 15 May 2016 at 4:28pm Redballs wrote:
Zebedee why do you asume that people who want Brexit are uninformed.
I suggest you open your eyes and see the state that the EU has left Greece in.
On 15 May 2016 at 4:49pm Democrat wrote:
Zebedee or Paul Newman - you two write the same bigoted posts.
We brexiteers are much more informed than you, have actual arguments backed up by evidence and don't rely on fear.
You do realise you can trade quite easily with the EU and not be a member of the political institution or are you not intelligent enough to understand that very simple fact?
The scots voted no the independence if you didn't happen to notice and the recent elections have stopped SNP from having a majority - that's a pretty clear signal from them for no further referendums.
Norway only have to abide by 9% of EU regulations just as they would have to abide by Canadian regulations to trade with them so get your facts straight and stop lying - they are also one of the richest nations in Europe along with Switzerland another non EU member.
Also no one is actually proposing we copy their models this is a usual error from bremainers like yourself, no the British will be free to trade freely with the whole world through global rules set out by the world trade organisation and have full border control - because that's what a democratic, independent nation can do.
You can't even compete on the economic debate so why don't you tell us why we should give up our democracy, borders, and sovereignty and pay 350 million pounds a week for the privilege?
Another excellent Brexit the movie clip on trade exposing your lies

Watch the video »
On 15 May 2016 at 5:54pm I don't understand ... wrote:
How come the IMF, the Bank of England, Barak Obama, the CBI, and many, many economists are wrong and Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Ian Duncan Smith (he of the totally failed Universal Credit) know better ..... What is the world's economists and international financial bodies hidden agenda? Why are they telling us these things if their facts are completely wrong? Why are they trying to make us do something that would be so bad for us. ( It's like alternative medicine and homeopathy believers who think that Doctors are deliberately trying to hide the truth.) Sadly the brxitwrs are mostly old men who have this fixation about 'Sovereignty' which in this globalised world means Bugger all to anyone under 30. How in hell will we deal with the tide of economic immigrants and war refugees if we don't do it with the rest of the Europe we are already part off. Sailing off alone I to the Atlantic is hardly an answer. I don't agree with Pan on many things, but this time he's right and I don't want my standard of living or my kids', to be totally trollied by leaving.
On 15 May 2016 at 6:00pm pn wrote:

You do realise you can trade quite easily with the EU and not be a member of the political institution or are you not intelligent enough to understand that very simple fact?
Yes indeed and with 20% of world GDP the EU is able to do exceedingly advantageous deals with small economies ~( like ours ) and act with parity with the USA and China . It has taken Canada seven years thus far to get a deal put together at all so we shall have amlong wait to see how bad it is .In any case this is not the main problem which as I have previously explained is that outside the single market we will not be able to trade in financial services on a European basis at all.
Google Jeremy Warner on the likely affect on the City
"The scots voted no the independence if you didn't happen to notice and the recent elections have stopped SNP from having a majority - that's a pretty clear signal from them for no further referendums.-

The SNP have on many occasions said they would take a vote to leave the Euro as a fundamental shift up with which Scotland would not put ,It may not be tomorrow but theybwill do it soon
-Norway only have to abide by 9% of EU regulations-

Norway is a member of the EEA and as such has to abide by all EU market regulations as well as the basic freedoms ( including of movement ). It is not included in the Fisheries or CAP which produces a mountain of words but only by word count are they on 9% which is amusing way of looking at it
I don`t wish to be unkind or superior I have no doubt you read on some ;leaflet and took it in good faith but really the idea that people think this is true is terrifying .
Switzerland has a series of bilateral treaties that mimic the EEA agreement and they alos have to abide by the basic freedoms including of movement
Neither of these countries has any say in the rules they have to abide by and in any case the Brexit camp are not saying we are going to be like Norway or Sweden they say we are going to be taken out of the single market altogether
It is really important that this is understood

-Also no one is actually proposing we copy their models this is a usual error from bremainers like yourself, no the British will be free to trade freely with the whole world through global rules set out by the world trade organisation and have full border control - because that's what a democratic, independent nation can do.-

We will only be able to close our borders ( if you think that is a good idea)( if we leave the single market altogether . this is not the case with any country you have mentioned and in any case it is immigration form the sub-continent not France Belgium and Germany that is the problem , if you think there is one

The nest payment form the Uk to the EU is £8bilion. Our Annual GDP is about £2 trillion ?
We can already trade with the rest of the world , but as we do so with EU treaties it is not clear we will have any righ to do so post Brexit or ceratinly that wqe cvan on the same terms

It is very important that the basic facts are understood , therece of course different views but at the moment half of what I hear is a garble of entirely misunderstood gobbets .
On 15 May 2016 at 6:04pm pn wrote:
Clifford - In this case the Unuons are standing up for workers of all kinds in the UK and I appreciate their efforts . It is when they are acting only for a small section against the rest they frustrate me. It is a reminder that Unions can be force for good and ceratinly have been so I take your point .
On 15 May 2016 at 6:10pm Democrat wrote:
Thanks Paul I'll now show you to be the disgraceful, deceitful little liar you are:
PN - "Yes indeed and with 20% of world GDP the EU is able to do exceedingly advantageous deals with small economies" - Lie
The share of world output accounted for by the 28 current members of the EU has fallen from 30% to 17% from 1980 to 2015 - Full fact*
PN - "Norway is a member of the EEA and as such has to abide by all EU market regulations" - Lie
The data are published by EUR lex and the EFTA Secretariat: they show Norway actually adopted only 9.05 per cent of EU directives and regulations.

PN - "We will only be able to close our borders"
I didn't say that did I? I said border control not closed there's a clear difference - At present we have an disastrous open border when we leave we can have a sensible fair points
On 15 May 2016 at 7:39pm Belladonna wrote:
Britain is not a small economy though Paul - we are the fifth largest in the world.
On 15 May 2016 at 9:12pm Reality wrote:
More total bulls**t from those with a crystal ball
On 15 May 2016 at 9:56pm The Old Mayor wrote:
Does democracy mean absolutely nothing to the people under 40 ? Maybe we shouldn't have sacrificed a generation for them, it does make you wonder.
On 15 May 2016 at 9:57pm Fairmeadow wrote:
If (a) we currently import more from the EU than we export to them [as we do] and (b) Brexit stopped or greatly reduced this trade [unlikely, I suspect] then surely we stand to benefit, net, as exports would reduce less than imports? Exporters would see their trade hit, unless they found new markets. But UK manufacturers would have new opportunities to replace the former EU imports. The balance of payments would improve, so foreigners would have less of our money to buy our businesses, houses and land with, and interest rates would go down. So, net, a benefit.
If Cameron really believed Brexit would be an unmitigated disaster, then he would never have called an unnecessary referendum, would he? If he really thinks it would be a disaster but called the referendum anyway, that would be a pretty clear demonstration that he is unfit to govern, and he should go right now!
On 15 May 2016 at 10:29pm Convenient wrote:
@Zebedee the beauty of this whole thing is that much to your disappointment us "uninformed" Brouts get exactly the same voting rights as you pious Brins ..we all have to just wait and see . All the ramblings on here won't change anyones mind .
On 15 May 2016 at 10:30pm pn wrote:
About 2.25~% of global GDP BD - not big enough to matter in a world where the rules are carved up between big trading blocks. No-one knows what the years of uncertainty will bring but it will certainly be worse .
A couple of years out of date on the precise figures and “ a disgraceful liar” are not the same thing Democrat . The point stands, in n fact the continued rate at which other economies ( Notably China ) continue to outpace the West makes it worse . It puts us in an even weaker position as the Chinese have made abundantly clear.
The EEA ( which may I remind you , you have recommended we do not join ) is based on the same "four freedoms" as the European Community: the free movement of goods, persons, services, and capital among the EEA countries. They have free trade with the European Union on that basis and because they adopt the Law of the European Union other than Agriculture and fisheries ( other minor matters ) Agriculture and Fisheries produce about a million boring directives a year . If you add verbiage you get your stupid figures but they are bound by everything that matters .
End Of
On immigration, in that we have problems arising from immigration in this country they largely emanate from the Blair period during which millions new migrants arrived from the New Commonwealth . The EU has nothing to do with this and leaving it will not change it . Neither will leaving the EU guarantee a new xenophobic style of UK politics you seem to want.
Freedom of movement in the EU ( 2,000,000 Brit s live and work in it as well ) is a mutual thing
And many people appreciate the freedom to live and work anywhere in the EU- Freedom is a good thing of itself in my opinion. Not yours I gather
Freedom of movement provides a net contribution to the treasury enables our services to operate easily on a pan European basis (which is vital) and adds growth in fact it is the only source of growth.
Without growth our deficit becomes proportionately larger and pressure on interest rates and inflation and the pound grows
On 15 May 2016 at 10:39pm pn wrote:

Fairmeadow that is not how trade works in my humble opinion. What you are suggesting is actually we are all obliged to buy expensive bad cars so as to conduct a trade war with a trading group of which we are a small partner whereas they are of huge importance to us . That is a fight we will lose badly and it will make us poorer not richer
Personally I think the growing pressure of UKIP obliged Cameron to call the referendum , you can call it cynical if you like but it also the way a democracy works . At this point it hardly matters but if the price of keeping us afloat was Cameron`s head you are welcome to it . Jobs Homes and our future are much more important than any political Party to me
On 16 May 2016 at 1:28am Vote Leave wrote:
I`m fed up with all the scaremongering from the remain lot.What is wrong with being as sucessfull as Albania?We went there a couple of years ago, the people are very nice and quite servile and the alcohol is very cheap.What is there not to like ? Vote Leave for cheap booze and fags an people that know their place.
On 16 May 2016 at 11:11am selfish git wrote:
3% interest rate? Oh, goody, at last some return on my savings.
On 16 May 2016 at 3:46pm Observer wrote:
"Norway only have to abide by 9% of EU regulations just as they would have to abide by Canadian regulations to trade with them so get your facts straight and stop lying - they are also one of the richest nations in Europe along with Switzerland another non EU member. "
Norway and Switzerland are members of the Schengen area though. We are not.
On 16 May 2016 at 5:22pm Observer wrote:
The ultimate point is that about 60% of our trade is with the single market (Switzerland & Norway included). I can't see how we can opt out of the single market without having to comply with at least some of the regulations. If we don't we will see tariff barriers to goods and potentially more severe barriers to services (which dominate the UK economy) - it would be an economic disaster. We can talk about increasing trade with China and India but they represent a tiny fraction of our economy at present and the idea we can massively increase this in anything less than a few decades is fanciful.
As for democracy and sovereignty. The EU only accounts for a tiny fraction of UK legislation, and a lot of that is 'gold plated' by Westminster! Ultimately we still have sovereignty and we can leave the EU at any point in the future. At the moment, as far as can see, the benefits outweigh the costs. If that were to change, or the EU were to genuinely turn into a superstate - I can't see any sign of this at the moment - then we can leave.
At the moment, we have the best of both worlds - we have all the trading benefits but we are not in the Euro, not in Schengen, and can opt out of any further integration. What exactly is the problem?
On 16 May 2016 at 6:17pm Democrat wrote:
You are as bad a liar as paul.
It's actually 44% and falling according to full fact.
You have to abide by regulations from every country you trade to - that's completely different from tariffs which are set by the WTO and they are very low.
Here's a FACT for you even in the worst case scenario where we didn't negotiate a trade deal with the single market ( something that won't happen as Germany sell much more to us and said they would begin negotiating a tariff free one within 24 hours) abiding by the low tariffs set out by the WTO that is legally binding the cost would still be LOWER than our net contributions to the EU every year.

By the way you cannot be so amazingly ignorant as to think they are not building a superstate?
what planet are you on? This has been a political project from the beginning - they have a flag, anthem, plans to build an army, a currency which we will be forced to join, they are planning to build an EU police force, single post office and rail system, they are merging the financial systems, governments and people into a new country.
“Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose but which will irreversibly lead to federation.” - Monnet the founder of the project
On 16 May 2016 at 8:44pm Zzz.. wrote:
That should be a 'we'.

There is little unemocratic about the EU, unlike the UKs daft political set up.
On 16 May 2016 at 10:28pm Observer wrote:
Yes, the EU is a political project. However, they have long recognised that the UK has a different history and sensitivities, which is why we have are the only country within the EU which has neither joined the Euro, nor had to commit to doing so, nor joined the Fiscal Compact. We are also exempt from Schengen, unlike every EU country as well as Norway and Switzerland. We can easily exempt ourselves from any other 'federal' measure as we wish. I fail to see what the problems are.
You're sounding a bit shrill now. We are looking at 10pc tariffs on car parts exported from the Midlands to Germany, for example. If I were German I might think about looking to the Czechs for my parts in future. That's before we get to the issue of the financial services industries and passporting. Or for that matter all service industries - you know the ones that make up 80% of the UK economy. The WTO is much weaker there.
The other problem with the WTO is it is a piss poor enforcer compared to the EU.
On 17 May 2016 at 12:05am wrote:
Most outers’ reasoning isn’t really built on any assessment of relative fiscal policies, nor is it built on relative democratic procedures. They seem unwaveringly to think that if/when things change, they’ll suddenly be handed back the prosperity and sense of ownership in UKs political and economic future that the Conservatives (yes – including Tony “Thatcher was Britain’s greatest ever statesperson” Blair) have progressively denied them in recent decades.
It wasn’t the EU that told us If we give the wealthiest people more tax breaks, everybody will be better off.
It wasn’t the EU that gave multinational corporations permission to not pay taxes,
It isn’t the EU that says politicians have to be predominantly Old Etonians.
It wasn’t the EU that gave British manufacturers tax funded grants to help them sack all their UK staff and move their operations to Asia.
It wasn’t the EU that told you to stop blaming banking fraudsters for a collapsed economy, your wage freeze, and the council’s failure to keep things the way you like them.
EU member states have stymied TTIP, much to the continued annoyance of the HoP, and all the business owners in there that have made huge efforts to ensure their businesses dictate what laws can and can’t be made.
But as I say, its largely irrelevant anyway, because most outers are the embarrassing majority of the population who just inherently distrust foreigners, exactly as their newspapers tell them to. They know it’s (at least perceived as) illogical and bigotted and therefore they hide it behind ridiculous notions of a golden age of empire (what we’d now call a superstate), the golden pre-war age, before we had an NHS, a properly run education system, outdoor toilets and indoor icicles.
I’d have a bit more respect for outers if they just admitted ‘I don’t trust or like foreigners’. Personally I don’t care anymore, I’m too old for it to have much of an impact on my remaining years. In many respects I’d like to see a Brexit, then watch the Brexiters’ lives fall apart as they lose their jobs, their health service and their children’s future
On 17 May 2016 at 6:24am pn wrote:
Non Tarriff trade barriers are the real problem notably the fact that outside the Single market we could not sell banking Insurance or financial services in the EU at all . You would have to separately capitalise and comply in each member state which entirely defeats the point of locating in the City of London.
The reason world trade barriers have come down is precisely because the EU and other major blocks have been able to push them down but as Observer says in the real world prodigious hurdles exist and unfair trade is still an observerable global phenomenon
The EU has many voices within it some of which have imperial aims and many of which do not . Its like the stars you can see a hunter or a bunny and it’s a treasure trove for conspiracy theorists . Overall it tries to match the political element necessary to the single market but its problem is it can never be strong enough . That is why its regional Policy is insufficiently robust and its Parliament weak. All the power is with the Council of Europe which is basically a forum for Soveirgn States to negotiate
That what you wanted wasn`t it ?
I have considerable sympathy for those who dislike the sudden demographics changes inflicted on them but these have ;little to do with the EU and mostly concern populations form the sub continent whose integration has posed great difficulties . EU Freedom of movement has great advantages for this country and is a very different thing

PS Everything Observer says in unanswerable common sense
On 17 May 2016 at 8:59pm Zebedee wrote:
How interesting that the EU issue so divides the right and also the left. As a naturally inclined left wing disrupter I find myself agreeing with and on the same side as a near-decade antagonist right wing loonie Paul 'may they eat roadkill' Newman. And not Clifford, a more traditional left winger. Wonders will never cease.

Where's Southover Queen when you want her....? Still here I'll bet.


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